The UFC is bringing the action back to the Apex for a 12 fight card Saturday night for UFC Vegas 106. Weigh ins are complete and the UFC held the rare perfect weigh in with all hitting their marks.
The main event is also set where we will see the prospect Michael Morales make the most of his opportunity over Gilbert Burns. Burns with a big flex on the scale looked in phenomenal shape for his age on the scales, showing his motivation.
The fight card is stacked with exciting fights from top to bottom and fans across the globe will be in for a treat Saturday night.
With a few debuts and sophomore fights for some prospects, fight fans will find out who is ready for the big lights. It all goes down live tonight at the UFC apex in Las Vegas, Nevada!
I have created this UFC Vegas 106 Best Bets guide to provide deeper analysis on some of the big fights & provide our readers here at Betting News with the best gambling experience possible for UFC Vegas 106. Lines are moving, money is coming in and there is less then 24 hours to get our bets in so lets dive into it!
All Odds Are Presented by Betonline as of 5/17/25 10 Am
UFC Vegas 106 Main Event: Michael Morales vs Gilbert Burns Analysis, Best Bet, & Prediction
UFC Vegas 106 Main Event Fighters
The main event of UFC Vegas 106 is sure to be an exciting match up in the welterweight division. With a lot of questions on both sides, MMA fans are highly anticipating the 5 round bout in search for answers.
Gilbert Burns is a legend of the UFC with 23 fights under the promotion. Some of those fights being looked at as some of the best of all time, including a title fight in which he lost.
In his tenure Burns has made his presence felt in multiple divisions. Bouncing up and down from lightweight to welterweight, rattling off 15 wins finishing 8 of those.
With his grapple heavy style and kill or be killed mentality, he has cemented a legacy within the UFC. At this point in his career I believe we have seen the complete mixed martial artist in him.
Burns has shown improvement over the years in the wrestling department, using it to secure takedowns. He is a high level black belt in BJJ, the wrestling wrinkle has really helped solidify his skill set.
In the striking department , he leaves much to be desired. Gilbert has lost a step over the years and his striking defense has always needed improvement.
He is very violent, with heavy hands and good combinations when he gets going. Holding his power late into fights, his down fall has always just been his take 5 to give 1 style.
On a tough run as of late being the loser of 3 straight, he is looking to teach the prospect a thing or 2 to get back in the win column. With Father time knocking at his door, his back is against the wall in this bout.
Will Morales Pass The Veteran Test?
Undefeated Welterweight Prospect Michael Morales
Michael Morales has been running red hot since making his debut on DWCS in 2021. Coming into the UFC 12-0 and ripping off 5 more wins since his arrival.
The hype is building with each of his fights by finishing 3 of his 5 wins by Knockout. The prospect is making a name for himself within the Welterweight division and putting the Top 5 on notice.
He has ungodly power for the division likely coming from his massive frame. Carrying one of the longest reach advantages in the welterweight division.
With a judo background and wrestling background his grappling skills have passed the test at the UFC level. He has a 92% takedown defense average, which has helped him keep the fight standing.
Being a long fighter with significant reach for the Welterweight division, its clear he prefers the fight on the feet. He has slick boxing when in the pocket, but can stick and move when he needs to.
Morales is great at controlling distance and not letting his opponent get close to him. He has great movement in the cage and a stiff jab to keep opponents at his distance.
Being the clear A side in this match up it is hard to not consider all of the advantages he has in the match up. A 13 year age gap, 8” reach gap, and a significant speed advantage are hard to ignore from the upcoming prospect.
UFC Vegas 106 Michael Morales vs Gilbert Burns Prediction: Michael Morales By Points (+235) at Betonline
UFC Vegas 106 Michael Morales vs Gilbert Burns Best Bet: Over 3.5 Total Rounds (+125) at Betonline
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Co – Main Event: Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Analysis, Best Bet, & Prediction
Light Heavyweight Co Main Event
In an exciting match up we will see Paul Craig return to the light heavyweight division to take on Rodolfo Bellato. A match up between 2 violent fighters with 28 finishes combined between the 2 fighters.
Paul Craig is a UFC veteran at this point in his career, with over 19 bouts in his tenure. He has an impressive resume, sharing the cage with current and former champions.
B.J.J is the base of his game , being a high level submission threat on the ground with 13 submissions on his record. Even if he is hurt and on his back, that is when he is the most dangerous.
Striking seems to be the big downfall of his game although. Not being a very technical guy and just using the stand up exchanges to get the fight to the ground.
When on the feet he looks awkward, uncomfortable and is always a step behind his opponents. His striking defense is probably some of the worse in the division even being knocked out 5x in his tenure.
In a match up against a big power puncher in Bellato, Craig has his work cut out for him Saturday night.
Will Craig Be Able To Get The Fight To The Ground?
Bellato Winging Big Power Punches To Find A Knockout
Rodolfo Bellato is an upcoming prospect the UFC has high hopes for due to his exciting style. Being just 29 years old , it is expected for him to make great improvements with each fight.
This will be his 3rd bout under the banner and he has lived up to the hype thus far. Picking up a knockout victory in both his debut on DWCS, and his UFC debut.
His last fight against Jimmy Crute resulted in a draw, winning the first round but gassing out and losing the later rounds. It remains to be unseen if the all the travel to Australia had any effect on his cardio that night.
Bellato has shown he is a massive threat on the feet with big power in his hands. He is very patient and technically sound, winging big punches when he does find his opening.
The biggest threat to his game has been the wrestling. With pretty good takedown defense one would think it would not be a problem but once he is taken down, he struggles to get back to his feet.
In a fight with very little wrestling threat across from him, I expect him to keep it standing and find a knockout over the fragile Craig.
Co-Main Event Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato Wins (-440) at Betonline
Co – Main Event Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Best Bet: Under 1.5 Total Rounds (-115) at Betonline
UFC Vegas 106 Matheus Camilo vs Gabe Green Analysis, Best Bet & Prediction
The Featured Prelim Of The Night
Saturday night marks the return of Gabe Green in a new weight class aswell. He is coming down from welterweight for this match up vs the prospect Matheus Camilo.
Gabe Green is a UFC veteran being with the promotion for 7 years. Being some what of a inactive fighter, he has only 5 fights in the promotion.
He has an impressive resume fighting top prospects Ian Garry and Bryan battle. Despite not getting the win in those fights, he certainly showed he belongs at the UFC level.
Using an aggressive style and always moving forward, Gabe Green looks to his his grappling to get wins. He is kill or be killed in there, putting on a great show with Battle in his last fight ultimately being knocked out.
The grappling and wrestling is usually his only path to victory due to his poor striking defense. He does hold big power in his own right, having a knockout under the UFC banner.
I believe this match up will be entirely violent, as Green does not know how to fight boring.
Will The Prospect Shine In His Debut?
UFC Debutant Camilo
Matheus Camilo is an interesting fighter coming out of Brazil. He is training out of legendary gym Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, getting great coaching and better sparring partners.
Camilo has slick technical striking with great leg kicks. He chops his opponents down at the legs so he can push forward and use his hands.
He has big power and great combinations when throwing in the pocket. The chin has seemed to hold up in his career, never being knocked out despite taking a lot of damage at points.
The grappling seems to be his weakness at this point in his young career. Being taken down in multiple fights and even being submitted twice.
Camilo is very young at just 24 years old and I expect him to make vast improvements with each fight. Training out of such a decorated gym, it should speed that process up a little.
Riding a 5 fight winning streak and skipping DWCS to jump right into the featured prelim of the card. It seems the UFC is trying to set him up for a big win here, it is very rare they throw a prospect in a spot like this.
I believe he will have the speed advantage and get to the point of attack first to win this fight.
Matheus Camilo vs Gabe Green Prediction: Matheus Camilo Wins (-210) at Betonline
Matheus Camilo vs Gabe Green Best Bet: Under 2.5 Total Rounds (-140) at Betonline
UFC Vegas 106 Schedule & FAQ
When is UFC Vegas 106?
- UFC Vegas 106 will take place Saturday, May 17, 2025.
Where is UFC Vegas 106?
- UFC Vegas 106 will go down live at The Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
What time does UFC Vegas 106 start?
- UFC Vegas 106 Preliminary Card start time: 4 p.m. ET
- UFC Vegas 106 Main Card start time: 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch UFC Vegas 106?
- UFC Vegas 106 Preliminary Card Coverage: ESPN+
- UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Coverage: ESPN+
How to Bet on UFC Vegas 106?
- Most international and domestic sportsbooks will carry odds for a fight card of this caliber but check out our best online sportsbooks here to see what Betting News recommends for a great UFC betting experience.
If one thing is for sure, Saturday’s card is sure to bring the action. I hope this betting guide helps bring more context to your UFC entertainment experience.
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