UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg Full Card Odds & Prelim Picks

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is heading to Brazil on Saturday for UFC 301, live at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The exciting pay-per-view card is headlined by a championship bout as Alexandre Pantoja defends the UFC Flyweight title against Australia’s Steve Erceg.

Good morning from Rio de Janeiro! 🇧🇷@PantojaMMA vs Steve Erceg is happening THIS Saturday!
[ LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | #UFC301 ] pic.twitter.com/q7RTXjZYK8

— UFC (@ufc) April 30, 2024

Just like with every UFC event, there are a ton of betting opportunities on the horizon that MMA bettors won’t want to miss. Fortunately, I’m here to save you some time with my UFC 301 preview, which includes the latest full card odds and my predictions/picks for each of this weekend’s preliminary fights.

Strap in as we get started!

UFC 301 Main Card Fights & Odds

All UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, May 1 at 11:17 a.m.

UFC 301 Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Steve Erceg — Flyweight Championship

Record: Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) vs. Steve Erceg (12-1)
Moneyline: Alexandre Pantoja (-194) | Steve Erceg (+169)
Round total: 3.5 — Over (-150) | Under (+120)
Most likely method of victory: Erceg via KO/TKO (+250)

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UFC 301 Co-Main Event: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo — Bantamweight

Record: Jonathan Martinez (19-4) vs. Jose Aldo (31-8)
Moneyline: Jonathan Martinez (-151) | Jose Aldo (+131)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-260) | Under (+200)
Most likely method of victory: N/A

Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino — Light Heavyweight

Record: Anthony Smith (37-19) vs. Vitor Petrino (11-0)
Moneyline: Anthony Smith (+425) | Vitor Petrino (-600)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-200) | Under (+160)
Most likely method of victory: Petrino via KO/TKO (+105)

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria — Middleweight

Record: Michel Pereira (30-11, 2 NC) vs. Ihor Potieria (20-5)
Moneyline: Michel Pereira (-700) | Ihor Potieria (+500)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (+115) | Under (-145)
Most likely method of victory: Pereira via KO/TKO (-120)

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Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho — Middleweight

Record: Paul Craig (17-7-1) vs. Caio Borralho (15-1, 1 NC)
Moneyline: Paul Craig (+425) | Caio Borralho (-600)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-205) | Under (+165)
Most likely method of victory: Borralho via Points or Submission (+200)

"I'm just going to go in there and do what Paul Craig does best."

Paul Craig (@PaulCraig) details his #UFC301 bout with Caio Borralho and why he thinks the matchup is going to steal the show in Rio 🔊🆙

How To Watch #UFC301 ➡️: https://t.co/hIM1yT8D2M

— UFC News (@UFCNews) May 1, 2024

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UFC 301 Preliminary Card Odds & Picks

Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Brito — Bantamweight

Record: Jack Shore (17-1) vs. Joanderson Brito (16-3-1)
Moneyline: Jack Shore (+145) | Joanderson Brito (-170)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-180) | Under (+150)

Here’s a fight between two of the UFC’s hottest bantamweights. Jack Shore has gone 6-1 since making his debut while Joanderson Brito has finished each of his last four opponents. While both fighters are more than capable of winning, I’m taking Brito to emerge victorious.

At the end of the day, Brito has defeated tougher opponents than Shore and will have his home country of Brazil backing him up. It should be a back-and-forth bout with Brito eventually emerging victorious via points.

Shore vs. Brito Prediction: Joanderson Brito

Shore vs. Brito Best Bet: Brito via Points (+350)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo — Women’s Strawweight

Record: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (15-5)
Moneyline: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+330) | Iasmin Lucindo (-400)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-205) | Under (+165)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz might be on a four-fight winning streak, but she tends to struggle against strikers. That’s why Iasmin Lucindo — who has eight KO/TKO victories at the age of 22 — is a serious mismatch for the underdog. Kowalkiewicz has decent enough cardio to survive all three rounds, but Lucindo will do more than enough damage to win via points.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo

Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo Best Bet: Lucindo via Points (-105)

Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai — Lightweight

Record: Elves Brener (16-3) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-1)
Moneyline: Elves Brener (+210) | Myktybek Orolbai (-250)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-135) | Under (+105)

Elves Brener has been red-hot lately, going 3-0 since making his UFC debut. He’s going to have his hands full with Myktybek Orolbai, who debuted with a second-round submission win over Uros Medic back in November. Both lightweights have impressed thus far, however, I’m taking Orolbai to continue his run.

But regardless of who wins, I predict that this fight will go the distance. Both Brener and Orolbai know how to grapple well, so I won’t be surprised if they try to out-wrestle the other en route to reaching the round limit.

Brener vs. Orolbai Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai

Brener vs. Orolbai Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance — Yes (-120)

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Jean Silva vs. William Gomis — Featherweight

Record: Jean Silva (12-2) vs. William Gomis (13-2)
Moneyline: Jean Silva (-119) | William Gomis (-101)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-165) | Under (+135)

It’s hard to pick a winner for this featherweight scrap. After all, Jean Silva heads into UFC 301 on a nine-fight winning streak while William Gomis is in search of his 12th consecutive victory. It’s hard to say who has the edge here, but I’m going with Gomis.

After all, Gomis is younger, stands five inches taller, and also has the four-inch reach advantage. He also has three UFC victories under his belt, which is the type of experience that gives him an edge over Silva.

Silva vs. Gomis Prediction: William Gomis

Silva vs. Gomis Best Bet: Gomis ML (-101)

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UFC 301 Early Prelim Odds & Picks

Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose — Lightweight

Record: Joaquim Silva (13-4) vs. Drakkar Klose (14-2-1)
Moneyline: Joaquim Silva (+152) | Drakkar Klose (-177)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-260) | Under (+200)

Even though he’s in his home country, I can’t trust Joaquim Silva after going 3-5 in his last eight fights. Meanwhile, Drakkar Klose has knocked out two of his last three opponents while going 6-1 in his seven previous outings. Considering how Silva has a history of getting knocked out, let’s take Klose to finish him.

Silva vs. Klose Prediction: Drakkar Klose

Silva vs. Klose Best Bet: Klose Inside the Distance (+135)

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey — Lightweight

Record: Mauricio Ruffy (9-1) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (17-7)
Moneyline: Mauricio Ruffy (-190) | Jamie Mullarkey (+165)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-155) | Under (+125)

Jamie Mullarkey has the experience edge here, but I don’t see him overcoming Mauricio Ruffy. The odds-on favorite has been dominant to begin his MMA career, picking up each of his first nine wins via KO/TKO. Given that Mullarkey has been knocked out five times, I don’t see him surviving this UFC 301 bout.

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Best Bet: Ruffy via KO/TKO (-125)

Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite — Women’s Flyweight

Record: Dione Barbosa (6-2) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (5-0-1)
Moneyline: Dione Barbosa (-205) | Ernesta Kareckaite (+175)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-205) | Under (+165)

Truthfully, I’d stay away from this fight as both women are making their debuts this weekend. But if you’re hoping to get in on some of the action, you may as well back the matchup to go the distance. After all four of Dione Barbosa’s last six bouts went the distance while Ernesta Kareckaite reached the time limit in each of her last four outings.

Barbosa vs. Kareckaite Prediction: Dione Barbosa

Barbosa vs. Kareckaite Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance — Yes (-175)

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Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel — Lightweight

Record: Ismael Bonfim (19-4) vs. Vinc Pichel (14-3)
Moneyline: Ismael Bonfim (-550) | Vinc Pichel (+400)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-250) | Under (+200)

When it comes to this lightweight bout, I’m siding with Ismael Bonfim. Yes, he lost to Benoti Saint-Denis in his latest outing, but let’s not forget that he won 13 fights in a row before that loss. Meanwhile, Vinc Pichel hasn’t exactly beaten many notable UFC names and is likely demoralized after losing to Mark Madsen in his last fight over two years ago.

With cage rust likely playing a factor, look for Bonfim to dominate this fight.

Bonfim vs. Pichel Prediction: Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim vs. Pichel Best Bet: Bonfim via Unanimous Decision (+200)

Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas — Flyweight

Record: Alessandro Costa (13-4) vs. Kevin Borjas (9-2)
Moneyline: Alessandro Costa (-140) | Kevin Borjas (+120)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-120) | Under (-110)

It’s safe to say that neither flyweight’s UFC tenure has gone as planned. Alessandro Costa is 1-2 under the company’s umbrella while Kevin Borjas lost to Steve Erceg via unanimous decision in his debut bout. With that being said, I’m going to keep things simple by sticking with a Costa outright win. He’s already scored a UFC victory, which should give him the slight edge as Borjas continues to find his footing.