Sin City plays host to some of the best fighters in the world when UFC Vegas 82 takes over the Apex on Saturday, Nov. 18. The star-studded main card is headlined by a massive middleweight collision between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig.
If either man wants Sean Strickland’s UFC Middleweight title, a victory is crucial this weekend. As it stands, Allen is the No. 10-ranked fighter in the division while Craig isn’t too far back at No. 13.
This betting preview is your one-stop shop for the UFC Vegas 82 main event, featuring the latest odds, an Allen vs. Craig prediction, and the best bets you can make on Saturday night.
UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs Craig Betting Odds
UFC Vegas 82 odds courtesy of Bovada as of Thursday, Nov. 16 at 12:09 a.m. ET.
Allen vs Craig Moneyline
- Brendan Allen (-425)
- Paul Craig (+325)
Will Allen vs Craig Go the Distance?
- Yes (TBD)
- No (TBD)
Allen vs Craig Round Total
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-110)
- Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Allen vs Craig Tale of the Tape
Brendan Allen — Paul Craig
- Record: 22-5 — 17-6-1
- Height: 2’3” — 6’3”
- Reach: 75” — 76”
- Weight: 185 lbs — 185 lbs
- Age: 27 — 35
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 5 — 4
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UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs Craig Fight Preview
It doesn’t take much to figure out who’s Bovada’s odds-on favorite at UFC Vegas 82. Allen is the clear-cut favorite at -425 odds, carrying an implied win probability of 81.0%.
Few fighters have ever been as dominant as Allen, who’s 14-2 in his last 16 fights. “All In” has won each of his last five fights, too, which includes a 4-0 record since returning to the middleweight division.
What’s even more impressive is that he’s finished each of his last three opponents, earning ‘performance of the night’ honors twice over that stretch. At this rate, it seems like it’s a miracle for Allen’s opponents to even make it out of the second round.
At the same time, Craig isn’t exactly a slouch in the octagon. The former BAMMA World Light Heavyweight Champion has only lost twice in nine fights since September 2019 while picking up six finishes along the way.
On top of that, Craig has shown that he knows how to bounce back from adversity. After losing back-to-back outings to Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, the 35-year-old veteran returned to the win column back in July by TKO’ing Andre Muniz in his middleweight debut.
Statistically speaking, Allen has the slight striking advantage. The BJJ black belt lands more significant strikes per minute (3.96 vs. 2.57) with better accuracy (53% vs. 46%) than his counterpart.
And while Craig averages more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.91 vs. 1.22), Allen has him beat when it comes to takedown accuracy (42% vs. 23%) and defense (55% vs. 42%).
It should be an exciting clash, but most signs point to Allen, deservedly, being the likely victor.
UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs Craig Betting Trends
The Allen vs. Craig moneyline doesn’t exactly tell how the fight will unfold, however, Bovada’s prop markets help further shed light on the upcoming main event.
The first thing I noticed is that the sportsbook is favoring the Under on the 1.5-round total. It isn’t surprising given that four of Allen’s last six fights ended before Round 2 was halfway finished while six of Craig’s previous 10 ended in the opening frame.
If there is a finish, Allen is most likely to win by KO/TKO at +120 odds. That’s interesting considering how he hasn’t knocked out an opponent in nearly four years in addition to the fact that he only owns five career knockout wins.
If anything, Allen is more likely to win via submission (+185) in my eyes — the method that has accounted for 59.1% of his all-time victories.
Meanwhile, if there’s an upset, Craig is most likely to pick up a submission win (+650). Although he holds 13 submission victories to his name, the Scottish competitor has earned only one of his last four victories with that method.
UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs Craig Prediction & Best Bet
While Craig shouldn’t be underestimated, he just isn’t on Allen’s level. The 27-year-old phenom deserves all of the hype and is the better fighter, as proven by numerous statistics. He’s breezed through the middleweight competition thus far and Craig won’t be an exception.
As for the best bet, let’s go with Allen winning via submission. Craig doesn’t have the best takedown defense and isn’t the most accurate grappler, opening the door for Allen to use his superior wrestling skills to break the underdog down. Eventually, the time will be right to take Craig out with one of his numerous submission moves.
Allen vs Craig Prediction: Allen via Submission (+185 on Bovada)
UFC Vegas 82 Preview FAQ
When is UFC Vegas 82?
- UFC Vegas 82 will take place on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023.
Where is UFC Vegas 82?
- UFC Vegas 82 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
What time does UFC Vegas 82 start?
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 5 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC Vegas 82?
- Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+
- Main Card Channel: ESPN
How can I bet on UFC Vegas 82?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Vegas 82 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.