Yankees vs. Twins: Trust the Data | September 16, 2025

The lifeless Yankees were shut out on Monday night, falling 7-0 to the Twins. One would expect a team fighting for the AL East crown to at least put up a fight with 13 games left to play. Sadly, that was not the case. Even if the AL East title is out of reach, New York still needs to be firing on all cylinders heading into the postseason.

Yes, this is a Yankees fan rant. It is valid.

Trust the Data

Today, I am backing them again on the same prop as yesterday, but with even more data supporting the play. The Yankees offense ranks number one on Batters-Box. They boast nine elite-rated hitters in the default ratings. In the current season ratings, eight are elite and one is rated Great.

Over the last four weeks on the road, the Yankees lead in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO, while ranking second in hard-hit rate.

Zebby?

Tonight, they face Zebby Matthews. Admittedly, this is a name unfamiliar to many. The 25-year-old has been solid at home, posting a 3.56 ERA. Overall this season, however, he is allowing more than 5.5 hits and 2.5 runs per game, with opponents hitting over .280 against him.

Most of the Yankees’ elite hitters bat left-handed, which is a strong advantage against Matthews. In his last 60 matchups against lefties, he has struggled, posting a 7.50 ERA, 7.09 xERA, and 5.72 xFIP. Left-handed hitters are crushing him, carrying a .368 xBA, .645 xSLG, and .419 xwOBA in that span.

The Yankees may have looked lifeless in Monday’s loss, but all the signs point to a rebound tonight. Even if the AL East is slipping away, this team cannot enter the postseason cold. Their offense is elite, loaded with top-tier hitters capable of punishing any pitcher, and recent road splits show they are peaking at the right time.

Against Zebby Matthews, the matchup is glaringly in New York’s favor. Left-handed hitters, who make up the bulk of the lineup, have been tormenting him over his last 60 appearances. Statistically, he has struggled to limit damage, allowing high averages, slugging, and expected wOBA numbers. When you combine the Yankees’ recent dominance, the elite talent in their lineup, and the pitcher they are facing, this prop makes sense. Tonight presents an opportunity for New York to reassert themselves and send a statement before the postseason begins.

This lifelong Yankees fan is ready to throw in the towel if the team does not bounce back and deliver a strong performance tonight against this struggling Zebby. I still do not know what that name is…