Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been dialed in at the plate all month, yet the market is undervalue him. Today’s matchup and trends suggest there is clear value on his total bases prop. A great rating, strong splits, and past success against Rodon make this number too good to ignore.
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Last Month: 63-156 (-28.35u)
Last Week: 20-27 (+3.75u)
Cold June continues! It is a marathon, not a race. This is baseball!
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best Bets – June 30
Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leave the yard in back to back games?
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An insane price today for a guy who has been seeing the ball extremely well this month. Why on earth is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s total bases prop priced at +130? Forget the fact that he hit a home run yesterday. Guerrero Jr. is batting .281 with a .884 OPS in June. Against left-handed pitching, he owns a .343 average, .537 slugging, and .980 OPS this season. At home against lefties, he is still batting over .300 with a 1.086 OPS and a 202 wRC+.
He enters today with a Great rating on Batters-Box and has strong trends in that spot. In six of his last ten Great ratings, he has gone over this prop. Out of 106 total Great ratings, he has recorded a hit 69% of the time, two hits 34%, and has gone over 1.5 total bases 55% of the time.
Guerrero Jr. vs. Rodon
Today he faces Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon, who has stepped up this season with a 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 2025. Guerrero has had Rodon’s number throughout his career, going 8-for-12 with two doubles and a home run. Seventy percent of Rodon’s arsenal are pitches Guerrero Jr. handles best—fastball and slider. According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero is the best hitter in the Blue Jays lineup against both.
Ignore the big Sunday. There is no reason this prop should be priced this high. Sometimes, getting a great number is the win. Trust the trends, and take the mispriced prop.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) odds via BetOnline
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