Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went hitless yesterday, but the data suggests a strong bounce-back spot tonight. A favorable matchup and elite metrics make this one of the best value props on the board. The number is simply too good to ignore.
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Last Month: 62-151 (-26.03u)
Last Week: 15-26 (+1.61u)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best Bets – July 2

After going 0-5 on Canada Day, will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. go off?
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After an 0-5 day at the dish, today has Vlad Day written all over it. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bases prop is set at +145, which is an insane price for how much I love this matchup.
Vlad Jr. Day
The Blue Jays star holds a great rating on Batters-Box today. In 107 such spots, Guerrero Jr. records a hit nearly 70% of the time, two hits 34% of the time, and goes over this total bases prop 44% of the time. If you want some cushion, the over on his 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI at -115 is more than reasonable. He clears that number 56% of the time in great spots, and the price is more than fair.
The Yankees send rookie Will Warren to the mound, who owns a 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Over his last 103 innings, he has allowed 37% hard contact. On the road, he sports a 5.54 ERA and a .265 opponent batting average. A total of 42% of his pitch mix is below league average. The other 58% is his fastball and sinker—pitches Guerrero Jr. feasts on. Per Baseball Savant, Guerrero Jr. is the No. 1 Blue Jays hitter against those offerings, batting over .325, with an OPS above .956, and wRC+ north of 191.
This price feels offensive for a hitter batting over .300 with a 1.027 OPS over the last 15 days. Odds of +145 are hard to pass up, and the data backs him to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) odds via BetOnline
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