White Sox vs. Tigers Team Total Analysis and Picks

White Sox vs. Tigers: The weekend kicks off with one of my favorite angles, first five team totals, and there is no better spot than tonight in Detroit. The Tigers return home well-rested after a day off, while the White Sox roll in from a late start in Minnesota. Offense has been the story for Detroit over the last few weeks, and their bats are clicking at just the right time. With a favorable matchup on the mound and plenty of numbers pointing their way, the Tigers set up perfectly to keep rolling early. Let us dive into why this play stands out.

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White Sox vs. Tigers Best Bets – September 5

Can Riley Greene propel the Tigers to a win over the White Sox?

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Kicking off the weekend with my bread and butter, first five team totals. The White Sox head to Detroit to take on the Tigers in a three-game set after a late start in Minnesota last night, a game that did not get underway until 8:10 local time. Meanwhile, the Tigers had a full day to rest and prepare for this weekend series.

With the Tigers offense starting to heat up again over the last few weeks, I want to be a part of their first five total this evening at 2.5, priced at even money to the over. Detroit has been a top five offense at home over the last month, ranking third in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS, while also ranking fourth in ISO, fifth in walk rate, and sixth in hard hit rate. Today, their offense is ranked inside the top ten per Batters-Box, where they feature two elite rated hitters.

The bats have been staying hot, as six hitters own a batting average above .288, seven have an OPS greater than .825, and eight hold an on-base percentage above .350 in their last 60 plate appearances at home.

Smith vs. Tigers

On the other side, Shane Smith gets the nod for the White Sox. The right-hander enters today with the fourth worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box. He has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.37 ERA while allowing 4.5 hits and 2.8 runs per start. In his last five road outings, he has a 7.03 ERA, 5.34 xERA, and 4.49 xFIP. Hitters during that span have produced a near 50% hard hit rate, an xBA of .272, a .479 xSLG, and a .372 xwOBA.

The Tigers have averaged the second most runs in the first five innings at home this season, racking up over three per game. Meanwhile, the White Sox are allowing 2.80 runs in the first five.

This feels like a strong spot for the Tigers to get all over Smith, who they recently faced on August 13th. In that outing, Detroit was limited to just two hits through five innings against the 25-year-old right-hander. This is their revenge spot and an opportunity to continue their push for the number one seed in the American League. With how hot their bats have been and the juice on this prop sitting at even money, I fully trust this offense to get over 2.5 early.

Bonus Play

I absolutely love Riley Greene in this matchup against Smith. I am all over his bases prop at +140 and his home run prop at +500. He holds an elite rating in both categories on Batters-Box. In the default ratings at home, Greene goes over his bases prop 56% of the time and leaves the yard 25% of the time. On top of that, he records a hit nearly 69% of the time and collects two hits 50% of the time. This season alone, in 22 elite ratings at home, Greene has homered almost 32% of the time.

Smith has struggled badly against left-handed hitters in recent starts. The last 60 he has faced have posted a .276 xBA, a .566 xSLG, and a .320 xwOBA. They are also making 63% hard contact with a 9.3% barrel rate.

The Tigers are in an excellent offensive spot tonight, facing a pitcher who has been consistently vulnerable on the road. Their bats have been red-hot at home, and the numbers back up a strong expectation of early scoring. With even money available on the first five over 2.5, this is a bet worth jumping on. Add in Riley Greene’s favorable matchup, and there is plenty of value on the board to start the weekend off right.

Best Bet: Tigers First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+100) odds via BetOnline

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