White Sox vs. Royals: It’s time for the rubber match between these American League Central foes. The White Sox took game one in a 7-0 shutout, but the Royals bounced back with a 5-4 win Tuesday night.
Kansas City is fighting hard for its postseason life, sitting three games back of the Mariners for the third Wild Card spot. On paper, this series against the White Sox should be a cakewalk, but the Southsiders have been feisty in the second half of the season. Will that grit continue to show, or can Kansas City inch closer to that final Wild Card position? Let’s preview this matchup and dish out a moneyline bet between the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
White Sox vs. Royals Best Bet – August 27
Can Vinnie Pasquantino get it going for the Royals tonight?
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At Rate Field, the wind appears to be blowing out around 9 mph to left-center field, with temperatures in the mid-70s. The game total sits at 8.5 with slight juice toward the over.
My initial analysis was leading me toward a wager on the over, but I decided to steer in a different direction. The reason being because of tonight’s pitching matchup. Right-hander Aaron Civale takes the bump for the home team, while righty Ryan Bergert represents the visiting club.
Both of these pitchers show starts that ring alarm bells, and both offenses have proven to be capable against righties as of late.
Royals vs. Civale
Aaron Civale has had a rough go between two teams this season. He’s compiled a 5.02 ERA and a 4.92 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent of Pitching) up to this point. He hasn’t generated ground balls consistently (33.7%) and has struggled to escape jams with a 67% left-on-base percentage. He’s not earning a lot of outs either, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 10.4% and league average sits at 13.5%.
Last Friday, he faced the Minnesota Twins at Rate Field. I was actually in attendance for that game, and what stood out was Civale’s fatigue. By the fourth inning, it was evident he had lost steam on his fastball and hitters were making solid contact. This eventually led to a grand slam and his departure.
Digging deeper into his numbers makes the concerns even clearer. Overall, his stats are rough, but when he faces the batting order a third time, they plummet: a 7.62 ERA and a .491 slugging percentage. The first time through, his ERA is 4.54, and the second time it’s 4.41.
He’s also far worse at home, where he owns a 6.38 ERA, .346 wOBA and 5.25 xFIP. On the road, those marks improve to a 3.97 ERA, .326 wOBA and 4.66 xFIP.
Against right-handed pitchers, Kansas City has been one of the hottest offenses in Major League Baseball over the past month. They rank sixth in both wRC+ (121) and OPS (.805), while sitting seventh in ISO (.192).
Can Bergert be Trusted?
Ryan Bergert has also pitched for two different teams this season, and in that span he’s out together an ERA of 2.79. Pretty impressive, right? Sure, you could say that – but you could also say there’s a sense of impending doom every time he takes the mound.
While a 2.79 ERA looks great at first glance, his underlying metrics tell a different story. His xERA sits at 4.22 and his xFIP at 4.41. He’s right around league average with a 13.6% strikeout-to-walk ratio and generates very few ground balls (31.2%).
His profile is actually pretty fascinating. Those predictive stats are concerning, yet other numbers explain how he’s been able to maintain a low ERA. His BABIP (Batting Average of Ball in Play) is only .216, his left-on-base rate is 83%, and he’s only allowing about one home run per nine innings. On top of that, his WHIP is 1.09.
The man has given up just five earned runs across his last three starts, which includes a dominant performance against the White Sox where he went 5.1 innings, gave up six hits, one earned run, and struck out seven with just two walks.
And though the White Sox have shown signs of life offensively, their production still doesn’t measure up to the Royals over the past 30 days: 114 wRC+, .772 OPS, and a .174 ISO.
Best Bet:
Being able to grab the Royals’ moneyline at odds of -125 is a great deal. Yes, the White Sox have had their number this season, but Kansas City’s bats are stronger, they’ve got the better starting pitcher and plenty more to play for.
Best Bet: Royals Moneyline (-125) odds via BetOnline
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