White Sox vs. Mariners: Home Run Props | August 7, 2025

Sure, there will be people who argue, “Would giving out his hit or bases be the safer play?” I would argue, sort of.

Seattle Mariners star, Cal Raleigh, is known for the long ball. He currently leads the league with 42 home runs. However, that is really all he does. He hits singles and home runs. If you want to pay the $1.65 juice on his hit, that is a fine look. But bases? He does not hit many doubles. In fact, he has not recorded one since June 27. It is also highly unlikely he gets two hits, as he is very walk and strikeout prone. So why pay the juice when you can take his home run at +250, especially when he has not gone deep since July 31? Raleigh is due.

The Seattle slugger enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box. When owning an elite rating over the last three seasons, he hits a home run 27% of the time. That is over an 85-game sample size. For those betting hits, he records one 62% of the time.

Today, he faces White Sox starter Shane Smith, who owns the second worst current season rating on the slate, just ahead of your grand papa’s favorite pitcher, Carlos Carrasco. Smith carries poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact, allowing 37% hard contact overall this season. Against left-handed hitters over his last 90 plate appearances, that number jumps to 53.6%. Lefties also carry a .378 xBA, .549 xSLG, and .333 xwOBA against him.

Over his last five starts, Smith has been a mess: 9.82 ERA, 5.80 xERA, and a brutal 2.95 HR/9. Opposing hitters have a .534 xSLG and .385 xwOBA in that stretch.

Smith throws 44% fastballs, his best pitch.  His fastball and changeup are his main and most valuable pitches. The rest of his arsenal is below league average, making up around 36% of his mix. Raleigh happens to be the best fastball hitter on the Mariners roster. He owns a run value of 11 against the pitch, with a .573 SLG and .379 wOBA. Against the changeup, he has a run value of 2, with a .446 SLG and sub-.300 wOBA. He also holds solid metrics against the rest of the repertoire.

Despite the cold streak this past week, the Big Dumper is more than due to leave the yard. I think it comes this afternoon.