Twins vs. Athletics: Matt Wallner is back, and so is the value. The market continues to overlook his impact, even when the numbers do not. That is the kind of edge I look for.
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Last Month: 93-151 (+12.4u)
Last Week: 24-32 (+7.99u)
Twins vs. Athletics Odds
Will the Matt Wallner magic continue tonight in Sacramento?
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Run Line
Twins: -1.5 (-103)
Athletics: +1.5 (-117)
Total
Over: 9 (-115)
Under: 9 (-105)
Moneyline
Twins: -156
Athletics: +141
Twins vs. Athletics Best Bet
My muse is back. Matt Wallner is back after being sidelined for over a month. Why is he my favorite player? The books price his props like he is some scrub, but he is a five-tool player. Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli can slot him anywhere in the lineup and he will produce. Sportsbooks continue to list his hit prop lower than what I have here—even when he is leading off. He is too good to be this disrespected, but I love it.
Wallner has recorded a hit in each of his first two games since returning. Before the injury, he was batting over .304 with a .951 OPS in April. He has not missed a beat, and I am hoping he continues this hot stretch at the plate.
Today, the Twins’ stud enters with the second-highest rating on Batters-Box. In 60 elite-rated matchups, he has recorded at least one hit 63% of the time. In 19 road elite-rated matchups, he has recorded a hit 73% of the time, two hits 36%, and gone over his total bases prop 63% of the time.
The Athletics have Luis Severino on the mound tonight. He has struggled tremendously at home, carrying a 6.20 ERA and allowing a .274 opponent batting average. This season, he is giving up 5.5 hits and 1.6 extra-base hits per game. Against elite-rated hitters, Severino allows a hit 72% of the time. I love backing this trend whenever he is pitching.
The weather is once again ideal—80 degrees with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center. It is a great day for hitters.
The trends, the price, the matchup—it all makes the $1.50 hit prop worth a look. Hopefully, Wallner keeps swinging it.
Best Bet: Matt Wallner Hit (-150) odds via BetOnline
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