Twins vs. Tigers: We are diving into a new market this afternoon with a sweaty strikeout prop that caught my attention early. The data lines up, the price is right, and the matchup is exactly what I was looking for. Let us fire away on a debut play with serious upside.
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Last Month: 58-105 (-2.72u)
Last Week: 22-24 (+6.99u)
Twins vs. Tigers Best Bets – August 6
Can Alan Roden handle the Tigers stud right hander this afternoon?
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First-time bet alert.
We are kicking off this beautiful Wednesday with a prop I have not fully dipped my toes in until today. The data I have uncovered has me so excited, I had to crank out a write-up for you all.
Newly acquired outfielder for the Twins, Alan Roden, has been struggling at the plate over the last couple of weeks. He has been striking out at an alarming rate, and the price for him to record two strikeouts at +230 is well worth dabbling in this afternoon. In the 25-year-old’s last 60 plate appearances on the road, he owns a strikeout percentage of 31.7%. It only gets worse from there. Over his last 10 games, that number jumps to 42.3%. In his last 14 plate appearances, it climbs to nearly 60%. Since joining the Twins, he has struck out in 61% of his at-bats.
This afternoon, he takes on Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty, who has been locked in over his last few starts. In his last five outings, the 29-year-old owns a strikeout percentage of 31.5%, the highest among all starters on today’s slate, per Handigraphs. At home this season, Flaherty has been even more dialed in with his strikeouts. Over his last three home starts, his strikeout percentage is still hovering around 31%.
With 73% of Flaherty’s arsenal sitting above league average, and Roden posting atrocious numbers across the board against his pitch mix, the matchup sets up beautifully. Against fastballs—Flaherty’s most used pitch—Roden owns a .154 batting average, .448 slugging, .000 ISO, and a 51 wRC+ across 130 pitches.
This looks like a great spot to back the Twins’ leadoff hitter to record two strikeouts. If this price were below 2/1, I would probably be more hesitant. However, if you would rather take him to get just one strikeout and pair it with someone to record a hit for plus money, I highly suggest that route as well.
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