Twins vs. Marlins: Byron Buxton Player Prop Picks | July 1, 2025

Byron Buxton excited after home run - player prop picks

Twins vs. Marlins: Byron Buxton finds himself in a favorable spot at the top of the Twins lineup against Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. His metrics suggest he is primed to bounce back after a hitless effort on Sunday. The matchup, the ratings, and the pitch data all line up.

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Twins vs. Marlins Best Bets – July 1

Will there some Byron Buxton magic in the 305?

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Twins leadoff hitter Byron Buxton enters today with a great matchup against Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. Buxton holds the third-best rating in this matchup in the default Batters-Box ratings and ranks fourth for the current season.

In 60 great-rated matchups, Buxton records at least one hit 65% of the time, two hits 30% of the time, and goes over this prop in 50% of them. That is a strong sample at the great-rating level. The 31-year-old center fielder has produced almost identical splits on the road—batting .279 with a .536 slugging percentage and a .978 OPS.

Cabrera is allowing right-handed hitters to hit over .260 this season, with a .412 slugging percentage and a .738 OPS. Over the past three years, he has posted a poor average hitter matchup ISO. His best pitch is the slider, graded at 1.67—well above league average. Buxton has handled sliders well this season, with a 1.9 run value per 100 pitches, a .907 OPS, and a 163 wRC+.

After going hitless on Sunday, Buxton is in a strong bounce-back spot and well positioned to deliver at the top of the lineup.

Best Bet: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline

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