It’s officially that time of year, time for me to get into my MLB bag and find some winners. We’ve got a big slate of games today, so let’s get right into the best pitcher and batter matchups.
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Pitcher Report | June 6th
Yak City
If Antonio Senzatela is on the mound, he will always be the first pitcher we talk about. Senzatela’s got a 7.14 ERA, he’s allowing opposing batters to hit 0.374 and he’s allowing just under 2 HR per 9-innings. He’s struggled even further against lefties this year, allowing left-handed bats to hit .409 with a .577 SLG.
Tonight the Mets are in high altitude of Colorado and Senzatela’s struggled against this very Mets lineup. He’s got six career starts against the Mets, recorded a 4.65 ERA, giving up 6 HR and 32 hits in 31 innings of work. Soto, Nimmo, Alonso, and Lindor all have great history against the righty.
Now let’s talk about Patrick Corbin and Michael Soroka. Both pitchers have surrendered their fair share of HR this year and even more so recently. Both pitchers have given up 5 HR each, in their last 4 starts, and both lineups are chalked full big hitters.
Let’s not forget about Walker Buehler. He’s struggled against a lot of guys in this Yankees lineup, allowing 2 HR to Trent Grisham and allowing Jazz Chisholm to bat .429 in their head to head matchups. Tonight will be Buehler’s first start at Yankee Stadium and he’s struggled on the road this year. His 6.00 ERA on the road alongside the fact he’s allowing over 2 HR/9 when away from Fenway.
Weather Man, Weather Man
It’s the summer time, we’ve gotta talk about the weather. Let’s kick it off with the Diamondbacks in Cincinnati; winds blowing out towards left field with low air pressure, and Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound. Feels like we might see the Reds put up some runs today.
Next, it’s the Orioles in Sacremento. The O’s will make their first trip to the Athletics temporary stadium and they’ll face off with left-handed pitcher, JP Sears. Sutter Health Park ranks 5th amongst all stadiums this year in HR allowed, and today’s conditions present an even better opportunity.
Lastly, the Red Sox are in the Bronx to take on the New York Knicks. With low air pressure, mild winds blowing toward the outfield and Walker Buehler on the mound; it feels like a great day to see some balls fly at Yankee Stadium.
Our Best Bets on the Diamond for Friday, June 6th
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (-110 via BetOnline)
Cal Raleigh is leading the league in HR (24) and he’s doing it while hitting over 50% of his HR in one of the least hitter-friendly parks in the league. T-Mobile Park in Seattle is geared towards pitchers, but Cal’s still hit 12 of his 23 HR at home this year with a .254 batting average.
Cal leads the team in RBI, runs scored, is second in hits, and today matches up with a struggling Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has a 5.34 ERA this year, allowing opposing batters to hit .256, while giving up 1.7 HR/9. Through 6-starts in the month of May, Hendricks gave up 38 hits, 7 HR, including 5 HR over his L4 starts.
Hendricks is allowing righties to hit .275 this year with 7 of the 11 HR he’s allowed this year coming against right-handed bats. Raleigh’s never faced off with Hendricks but he is batting .83 on the road this year with 11 HR and a .651 SLG. He’s batting .286 against the Angels this year but has yet to record an XBH; today feels like a good day for that to change.
With winds blowing out towards center field, combined with the short center field fence; Cal might hit one into the stands.
Bonus: Cal Raleigh Home Run (+185)
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+110 via BetOnline)
This one’s a little strange, but just hear me out. Salvador Perez ranks among the top of unlucky batters this year and it’s a big reason as to why he’s recorded just 4 HR this year. Perez has been hampered by bad conditions, unlucky fly balls and tonight in Chicago I think his luck changes.
The White Sox have the smallest outfield in the MLB and today with wind blowing out towards right field, it feels like Perez’ day. He’s 3/5 in his career against Martin, recording 2 singles and a double.
In 4-games this month, Perez is hitting 0.421 with 8 hits, 3 RBI and 0 HR. Today his price sits at +420 and for a guy who’s got just 4 HR all year, it feels a little low.
Bonus: Salvador Perez Home Run (+420)
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