Happy Fourth of July. Before you dive into that cooler full of beverages, let’s jump into this Independence Day MLB slate.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page.
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MLB Pitcher Report | July 4
Independence Day, Unleash the Yakken
On a day like today, American Independence Day, this is the day we get the good balls. Let’s kick it off with the Athletics returning home after a nine game road trip. Sutter Health Park has been one of the best ballparks for offense this year, with the over hitting in 58.5% of their home games.
Today we’ll get JP Sears on the mound for the Athletics, his 5.23 ERA and .265 allowed batting average leave a lot to be desired. Pair that with his 90.3 mph average exit velocity and we’ve got a recipe for home runs in this Triple A Ballpark. He’s allowing opposing teams to hit .298 at home this year and 12 of the 18 home runs he’s allowed this year have come here in Sacremento.
Who’s bringing the meatballs to the Fourth of July BBQ? Antonio Senzatela. He’s got a 6.89 ERA this year and he’s allowing opponents to hit .353 with 13 home runs allowed. He’s got one of the worst strikeout rates in the MLB and ranks near the bottom in hard hit percentage.
Lastly, we’ve got to talk about Charlie Morton making his return to Atlanta. Morton was drafted by the Braves, traded to Pittsburgh, spent time in Philly, Houston and Tampa Bay before returning to Atlanta. This is the same team he won a World Series with in 2021, pitching in Game 1 of that series against the Astros.
Morton’s got two World Series Titles under his belt, multiple years as an elite pitcher and so many more highlights. However, this year at age 41 he just doesn’t look the same. His 90.6 mph average exit velocity, combined with this loaded Atlanta lineup, could provide the fireworks we’re all looking for today.
Baseball Flight School – MLB Stadium Report
With so many games already underway, let’s jump into tonight’s slate. Conditions at Sutter Health Park in Sacremento couldn’t be better, 14.3 mph winds blowing directly out of the stadium and temperatures in the high 70s. In Atlanta temperatures in the high 80s an winds blowing to the outfield in right.
Coors Field’s got winds blowing in toward the stadium today, but temperature in the high 80s combined with the low air pressure of Colorado should make for a great environment. It’s no surprise conditions are once again pristine in Los Angeles. Winds blowing at nearly 10 mph directly out of the ballpark and temperatures in the low 80s.
Our Best MLB Pitcher vs. Batter Bets on the Diamond for Friday, July 4
Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (-105 via BetOnline)
At this point, I should be banned from betting on Rafael Devers. The only person having a tougher time than me, is Rafael Devers. He’s battin .203 since being traded to the Giants and today, despite the great conditions we’re still getting his total bases at plus money.
After all the coin I’ve lost betting this guy, I’ve got to go back one more time here at Sutter Health Park. Winds blowing directly out of the stadium, JP Sears on the mound and Devers has crushed left handed pitching this year.
Devers is hitting .282 against southpaws this year, with a .490 SLG and five home runs. Sears sees his ERA jump to 6.68 at home this year, allowing the opposition to hit .298 and giving up 3.4 HR/9.
Devers is so incredibly due, this feels like the perfect park to finally bust out of that slump.
Bonus: Rafael Devers Home Run (+300)
Jurickson Profar o1.5 Total Bases (+175 via BetOnline)
This ones a little weird, but Profar’s back from his suspension and he’s had a home run in back to back games. Profar’s returning to the lineup after serving an 80-game suspension for violating the MLB’s joint drug prevention and treatment program.
Profar tested positive for PEDs after signing a 3-Year deal with the Braves directly after a season in which he set career highs across the board. Profar had 24 home runs last year, four greater than any year prior and a .280 batting average.
He’s now returned to the lineup and looking as strong as ever. Back to back games with home runs and tonight he faces off with a 41-year old Charlie Morton.
Bonus: Jurickson Profar Home Run (+700)
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