We started the week with a couple of wins, shoutout Cal Raleigh for getting it over the fence. Today we’ve got all 30 teams in action, some great matchups, and even better weather conditions. It’s basically the summertime, so let’s jump right into today’s huge slate and look at the top MLB pitcher vs. batter matchups.
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MLB Pitcher Report | June 18
Jameson, Neat
One of the first things that stands out to me on today’s slate is Jameson Taillon. He’s been decent, holding opposing batters to a .208 batting average, but he’s struggled with the long ball. Taillon’s 1.8 HR/9 is among the worst of all starting pitchers today, despite having one of the best opponent batting averages.
Taillon’s been much better at home, his ERA drops to 2.72 at Wrigley Field, as well as his opponent’s batting average (.182). The Brewers do have a few big bats that have done exceptionally well against Taillon. The trio of Chourio, Yelich, and Hopkins have three combined home runs against the righty and conditions today couldn’t be better.
Hits, Hits, and more Hits
There are three pitchers I want to highlight solely because of the amount of hits they give up. Logan Allen is allowing opposing hitters to average .272 on the season, that jumps to .289 on the road, and an astounding .326 against left-handed hitters.
In addition to Allen, Germán Márquez has allowed opponents to hit .318 this year and it’s been even worse on the road, .349. The only thing he hasn’t done is give up a ton of home runs, but it feels like that’s about to change. The conditions in Washington today are immaculate. After back-to-back losses to the Rockies, those Nationals bats are bound to swing just a bit harder.
Lastly, we have to talk about Jack Kochanowicz. He’s allowing opponents to hit .294, with lefties hitting .307. He’s given up 13 home runs this year, with 11 of them going to lefties.
Summer’s Here, Let the Ball Fly – MLB Stadium Report
Once again, the conditions across the league look great. We’ve got strong winds blowing in Cincinnati, Tampa, Seattle, and across the Bay area. With both Triple-A fields in play and winds blowing out in both stadiums, I’d start there if you’re looking for home run props. Severino hasn’t given up a ton of home runs, but with the Astros in town, that may change.
Low air pressure in New York, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and Los Angeles should allow the ball to hang up there just a little longer. We’ve got Márquez up against the angry bats of the Nationals, as Washington looks to prevent the series sweep. In Chicago, we’ve got TWO games with great conditions.
Starting at Rate Field, the White Sox will have Sean Burke take the mound. He’s struggled against righties this year, allowing them to hit .289 with six home runs. Over at Wrigley, it’s Taillon against the Brewers top prospect, Jacob Misiorowski. Let’s finish in Los Angeles, where Stephen Kolek will make his first career start at Dodger Stadium. My gut tells me the Dodgers make this start a forgettable one.
Our Best MLB Bets on the Diamond for Wednesday, June 18
Jung Hoo Lee o1.5 Total Bases (+115 via BetOnline)
Yesterday it was Devers, today we’re rolling with his teammate, Jung Hoo Lee. Lee’s been great in his first season as a full-time player for the Giants. His .265 batting average is top-three amongst all Giants and he sits top-three in runs scored, RBI, and extra-base hits.
Lee’s been in a bit of a slump, clearing this line just once over his last five games and batting .143 during that stretch. Four of the five games came on the road and Lee’s just been better when in the Bay. His batting average jumps to .276 at home, with 13 of his 22 extra-base hits coming in Oracle Park.
Allen’s struggled against lefties this year and Lee’s a rare lefty that hits better against left-handed pitching. Lee’s batting average jumps to .282 against lefties, with his SLG bumping up to .542. Despite never facing Allen in his short career, this feels like a great spot for Lee to bust out of that slump.
Bonus: Jung Hoo Lee Home Run (+900)
Brent Rooker o1.5 Total Bases (+120 via BetOnline)
If you give me Brent Rooker at +120 against a lefty, I’ll take it every single time. With the conditions at Sutter Health Park, it’s hard to ignore this game. Framber Valdez has been dominant this year and normally he’d scare me off a bet, but not this time.
Rooker’s hitting .286 at home this year, with six home runs and he’s been even better against lefties. His bating average jumps to .321 against lefties this year, with a .661 SLG. He’s hit just four home runs against lefties, but that’s due to a low volume of at-bats.
Rooker’s recorded 18 hits against lefties this year, with 11 of those going for two or more bases. Tonight against Framber, I’ll take my chances.
Bonus: Brent Rooker Home Run (+430)
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