Game one of the Tokyo Series delivered, and now we are right back at it for game two. This time, we are targeting a pitcher prop with Justin Steele to go over 4.5 strikeouts at +120. The Cubs’ lefty has the right matchup, the right price, and plenty of upside to make this a strong play.
Keep it light, keep it healthy during the Tokyo Series. Baseball is a marathon—it is long, it is grueling, but damn, is it fun!
Go all out next Thursday, but if you need some early action, I have a play worth sweating at five in the morning.
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2023 MLB Results: +96 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Tuesday’s Plays: 1-1 (+0.45)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Tokyo Series: Dodgers vs Cubs Odds
Can Justin Steele contain the Dodgers lineup?
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Runline
Dodgers: -1.5 (+112)
Cubs: +1.5 (-132)
Total
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
Moneyline
Dodgers: -144
Cubs: +132
Tokyo Series: Dodgers vs Cubs Best Bet
Game one of the Tokyo Series treated us well, cashing the two-leg SGP. Now it is time for game two, and this time we are taking a pitcher prop—Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele to go over 4.5 strikeouts at +120.
Steele enters today’s game with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. The Dodgers lineup features zero elite-rated hitters, with an average hitter rating graded as “above average.” Six hitters in the lineup are also above the league strikeout rate against Steele.
When Steele has an elite rating, he has surpassed 4.5 strikeouts in 61.54% of those games. However, when facing a lineup with a 25.51% average strikeout rate, he has cleared this number in 100% of those matchups, albeit in a small sample of six games.
In 2024, the 29-year-old had a better ERA and more strikeouts on the road, so hopefully, he can carry that dominance into the 2025 season in Tokyo. At plus money, this is a strong play for Steele. The sample size is small, and it is early in the season to fully trust the data, but getting this at above even money is worth the sprinkle.
Best Bet: Justin Steele Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Home Run Prop
Speaking of legit sprinkles, we are going back to Teoscar Hernández to hit a home run. Why? Same price as yesterday, another left-handed starter, and it just feels right to go back to a guy who ended game one on a hot note. Does the data agree? No, but sometimes you have to trust your gut.
Sprinkle: Teoscar Hernandez Home Run (+390)
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