Tigers vs. Mariners: Key Matchup for Game 2

Tigers vs. Mariners: The ALDS is officially underway, and after last night’s thrilling Game 1 win, the Tigers are looking to keep their momentum rolling. Detroit’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, led by the left-handed duo of Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Now they face Mariners ace Luis Castillo, a talented right-hander who has struggled down the stretch and shown real vulnerability against left-handed bats. The Tigers have been playing fearless, confident baseball all postseason, and this matchup sets up perfectly for their strengths.

Let us dive into why Detroit’s lineup could once again be the difference in Game 2 of the ALDS.

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Tigers vs. Mariners Game 2 Best Bets – October 5

Will we see Kerry Bonds this evening?

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After last night’s Game 1 thriller, the Tigers look to keep their foot on the gas as they face Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo. The Seattle ace enters this matchup with a poor overall rating on Batters-Box’s current season scale. His matchup ISO and ground ball rate also rank among the lowest on the slate.

Left-handed hitters have been Castillo’s weakness all season, posting a .278 AVG, .348 OBP, .466 SLG, and .352 wOBA against him. The last 90 lefties he has faced own a .282 xBA, .516 xSLG, and .347 xwOBA. During that same stretch, Castillo has allowed 50% hard contact, a 14.5% barrel rate, and 2.33 HR/9, along with a 6.05 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Tiger Lefties vs. Castillo

In this spot, I want to ride the highest-rated Tigers in the matchup. Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter both earn elite Batters-Box ratings, the only two elite tags on the entire slate.

These two left-handed bats have carried Detroit through the postseason, Greene tallied two hits last night, while Carpenter went deep. A parlay on both to record a hit sits near +150, and that number holds serious value. Historically, Carpenter has logged a hit in 72% of his 65 elite-rated matchups across the last three seasons. Greene has done the same in 62% of his 34 elite-rated games. When the metrics line up, these two deliver.

Castillo throws nearly 50% fastballs, and that plays right into their strengths. Both Greene and Carpenter have strong profiles against all four pitches in Castillo’s arsenal, especially the fastball. They have been the heartbeat of Detroit’s offense, each batting above .333 through the first four postseason games. Given the matchup, form, and price, this feels like a spot to back the Tigers’ two best bats to stay hot. +150 for both to record a hit is tremendous value.

At the end of the day, this matchup comes down to two hot bats against a vulnerable arm. Greene and Carpenter have been the tone-setters for Detroit’s offense, and with Castillo’s struggles against left-handed hitters, there is every reason to believe they will stay locked in. The numbers, the matchup, and the form all point the same direction. In a postseason where the Tigers have thrived on energy and momentum, this feels like another spot where their stars rise to the occasion. I am backing both to stay consistent and deliver once again as Detroit looks to take control of the series.

Leans: 2-Leg Hit Parlay Riley Greene & Kerry Carpenter 1+ Hit (+145) odds via BetOnline

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