Tigers vs. Mariners: Game One Preview

Tigers vs. Mariners: The wait is over and October baseball is finally here. The Mariners are back in the postseason for the first time as AL West champs since 2001, and this team feels different. They have been one of the hottest lineups in baseball down the stretch, and tonight they get a shot to keep that fire rolling. Game One brings a matchup that could set the tone for the entire series. Can Seattle’s bats stay hot under the postseason lights, or will the Tigers play spoiler right out of the gate?

Let’s dive into what I am seeing for Game One.

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Tigers vs. Mariners Game 1 Best Bets – October 4

Can Julio Rodriguez spark this Mariners offense tonight in Game One?

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The fun has arrived. Game One of the ALDS is finally here, and we get to see just how this red-hot Mariners team will handle October baseball. With their first AL West title since I was four years old (2001), all eyes are on how teams coming off byes will perform against opponents who already have playoff reps under their belts. In Game One, I think this matchup is very gettable for Seattle. They are set to face some of Detroit’s weaker arms, and the advanced metrics lean heavily toward the Mariners’ offense coming out swinging.

Tonight, I could not stay away from my favorite angle: first five team totals. I am on the Mariners first five team total over 1.5 at -160. There are 2.5s out there at plus money, and I endorse that too-especially if you are not in the juice-paying business. I am. If you can get the 1.5 below -180, it is a gift.

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Detroit rolls out Troy Melton, who should only go a few innings before Keider Montero follows out of the bullpen. Melton has the second-worst pitcher rating on the day, per Batters-Box, with poor marks in ISO and hard contact allowed. The right-hander has given up over 46% hard contact in 2025, the most among today’s starters. He now faces the highest-rated offense on the slate, whose lineup features four elite-rated hitters and three more graded as great.

As for Montero, he has been in rough shape lately. Over his last five outings, he holds an expected ERA of 4.35, allowing 48% hard contact and 30% line drives. During that stretch, hitters have posted a .271 xBA, .450 xSLG, and .338 xwOBA against him. The struggles worsen versus left-handed bats: over his last 60 faced, he owns a 6.13 xERA with 52.5% hard contact and a .395 xBA allowed. With most of Seattle’s best hitters swinging from the left side, this is a perfect setup for the Mariners’ lineup.

Seattle ended the regular season on an absolute tear, posting the second-most wins in September, trailing only the Cleveland Guardians. Over the past two weeks, they ranked top five in wRC+ and hard contact, and top ten in wOBA, ISO, and OPS. Over the last month against right-handed pitching, they are near the top in nearly every key offensive category.

This is the perfect spot for Seattle to make a statement. The bats are rolling, the confidence is high, and they are catching the Tigers’ weakest arms to open the series. If they come out swinging early, this one could get out of hand fast. I think the Mariners send a message tonight and remind everyone why they are one of the most dangerous teams in October baseball. Foot on the gas. No letting up.

Best Bet: Mariners First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-160) odds via BetOnline

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