Game 1: The MLB playoffs are finally here, and we waste no time diving straight into one of the more intriguing matchups of the opening slate. The Detroit Tigers travel to Cleveland to take on the red-hot Guardians, a team that has shocked the league with its late-season surge. While the Tigers stumbled down the stretch, they still bring their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound in hopes of stealing momentum back. This series may not carry the hype of the bigger market matchups, but the storylines run deep. Let us break down where the value lies in this postseason showdown.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.
Last Month: 29-82 (-22.27u)
Last Week: 9-17 (-4.24u)
ICE COLD. FADE ME.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 1 Best Bets – September 30
Can the Guardians shock the Tigers once again?
Check out BetOnline’s New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!
Good afternoon and welcome to the MLB playoffs! To kick things off, we have the Detroit Tigers traveling to Cleveland to face the hottest team in baseball. At first glance this series may not grab headlines, but I think it is one of the more intriguing matchups on the slate. The question is how the Tigers respond after their late-season collapse against a Guardians team that has stunned the league.
Detroit sends out their ace and AL Cy Young contender, Tarik Skubal, who should once again give them a strong outing. But while digging into odds and props, I could not help but focus on my bread and butter: first five team totals. The Guardians first five team total is listed at 0.5 runs. Yes, half a run. I have never seen that before, especially for a lineup as scorching hot as Cleveland. Even priced at -170, it feels outrageous.
I paid the juice because it almost feels like a misprice. Skubal is elite, no doubt, but this will be the third time Cleveland has faced him in less than two weeks, and the fifth overall this season. Familiarity matters. The more a team sees a pitcher, the less of an edge he holds. In their past two meetings, the Guardians have managed to scratch across at least a run, and I think this number is more than attainable even against Playoff Skubal.
Looking deeper at Skubal’s recent road form, he owns a 2.35 ERA across his last four outings, giving up an average of 4.75 hits, 2.5 extra-base hits, and 1.5 runs per start. His peripherals include a 1.6 HR/9, a 3.33 xFIP, and a 31.1 percent hard-hit rate. Those starts came against the Athletics, Royals, Marlins, and Guardians-the most random group of opponents imaginable-and three of those four managed to score at least once.
The Guardians, despite ranking just 28th in first five runs this season, still average 2.25 runs across the opening five innings. Skubal, meanwhile, has allowed 4.46 hits and 2.06 runs per road start this year. All things considered, the spot feels ripe for Cleveland to push across at least one run early, making that 0.5 number look like a gift.
At the end of the day, this bet comes down to value and opportunity. I am not fading Tarik Skubal outright, but the books giving us a Guardians first five team total of 0.5 is simply too good to pass up. Cleveland has been one of the most consistent lineups in baseball down the stretch, and seeing Skubal multiple times already this season gives them a real chance to plate at least one early run. Even with juice attached, this feels like the right side to back. I will gladly ride with Cleveland to cash this ticket.
For those who are not in the juice-paying business, I get it. My advice would be to parlay this with José Ramírez hit or one of the other props I will be breaking down for plus money. Another option, if available, is to alt the line up to 1.5 runs. Either way, I see plenty of value here, even at the -170 price tag.
Best Bet: Guardians First Five Team Total Over 0.5 Runs (-170) odds via BetOnline
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
- Picks & Odds for the NFL
- NFL Betting Guide for Beginners
- Pick & Odds for NCAAF
- NCAAF Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the MLB
- MLB Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NBA
- NBA Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NHL
- NHL Betting Guide for Beginners
More Betting Stories