Two AL East rivals begin a four-game weekend series before the All-Star Break tonight at Fenway Park, as the Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the course of the season, the Red Sox lead the season series 4-2, including winning two straight and four of the last five. Will Tampa turn things around tonight?
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: MLB Picks & Predictions
Taj Bradley gets the nod tonight at Fenway Park
Boston has been red hot. They’ve won six straight games and sit just a game and a half behind the Rays in the division. They are coming off back-to-back sweeps against the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies, and are 28-20 at home this year.
The Rays are coming off a road win, but have lost four of six on this current trip. They are also 4-8 in their last 12 games overall. The Rays do have a decent away record, but they haven’t quite figured out how to get past the Red Sox consistently. Will they turn things around tonight and find a way to win?
Matchup Information – Rays vs. Red Sox – July 10
- Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
- Date: Thursday, July 10, 2025
- First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays: Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)
- Boston Red Sox: Walker Buehler (6-6, 6.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP)
Rays vs. Red Sox Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Rays +1.5 (-205)
- Red Sox -1.5 (+177)
Moneyline
- Rays +101
- Red Sox -111
Total
- Over 9 (-123)
- Under 9 (+103)
Two studs take the mound in Walker Buehler and Taj Bradley. Buehler has seen the Rays twice this season.
In two starts, Buehler has thrown 12 innings against the Rays, allowing five earned runs on nine hits and four walks. He has picked up a win in both outings. But recently, he’s given up 2+ earned runs in eight straight starts, allowing 4+ in five of those as well.
Bradley has had a couple of rough outings, but overall he’s been decent. He has yet to pitch against the Red Sox this season, but his splits are slightly better on the road this year, given the Mickey Mouse ballpark the Rays are playing in. But he will certainly have a test against the Boston bats that are primed and ready to roll.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Best Bets
Trevor Story has 57 RBIs for Boston this season
Rays vs. Red Sox MLB Prediction: Red Sox Win, Over 9
Best Bet: Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) BetOnline
Let’s lay out the facts. Despite ranking fourth in the AL East in the standings, the Red Sox are No. 2 in the American League in runs scored, and No. 4 in the entire MLB. When talking about runs scored at home, Boston trails only the Dodgers, but are scoring 5.52 runs per game at Fenway this season.
I think they get the best of Bradley tonight. After pitching a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Kansas City two starts ago, Bradley has allowed eight earned runs on 14 hits in just 11 innings. Over the past month, Bradley has allowed three runs to the Minnesota Twins, five to the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles, and seven to the Miami Marlins and Orioles.
The Red Sox bats are on a heater right now, and I see them keeping the momentum up at home against a division rival. Boston hits .257 as a team, but .272 at Fenway this year, plus they’ve hit .333 in eight games so far in July, where they are 7-1.
I’m not necessarily going to trust Buehler in his third start against Tampa Bay, but I’ll back the Red Sox to score plenty of runs.
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