Royals vs. Red Sox: The wind is blowing out at Fenway, and the conditions are ripe for a right-handed hitter to do some damage. Enter Romy Gonzalez, who gets a dream matchup against Bailey Falter and his underwhelming pitch mix. All signs point to a strong bounce-back performance after a quiet Sunday.
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Last Month: 52-95 (-2.88u)
Last Week: 21-20 (+7.61u)
Royals vs. Red Sox Best Bets – August 4
Can Romy Gonzalez have another incredible outing?
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Beautiful weather out in Boston this evening—82 degrees with 11 mile per hour winds blowing out to left. This sets up as a great night for a right-handed hitter to feast. Well, what do you know, Romy Gonzalez is that right-handed bat we are going to back.
Today, the Red Sox first baseman faces newly acquired Royal, Bailey “Fault in our Stars” Falter, who enters the slate with a poor overall rating, per Batters-Box. His matchup ISO and strikeout percentage are both below average. The near-50% fastball pitcher features five offerings, two of which—his curveball and splitter—grade below league average per FanGraphs. Those two pitches make up 21% of his arsenal. Gonzalez has strong data against all five.
Over Falter’s last 60 plate appearances against right-handed hitters, opponents are torching him with a .396 xBA, .710 xSLG, and .445 xwOBA. He also carries a 1.88 HR/9, 45.6% hard-hit rate, and 8.25 xERA.
To make matters worse for Falter, Gonzalez at home against southpaws owns a .348 batting average, .717 slugging, 1.105 OPS, and 197 wRC+.
When holding an elite Batters-Box rating, Gonzalez records a hit 63% of the time, two hits 31%, and goes over this prop 47%. Yes, that is a small 19-game sample, but paired with everything above, it feels hard to pass on plus money for Gonzalez to have a big game—especially coming off an 0-3 on Sunday.
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