Royals vs. Guardians: The Kansas City Royals find themselves in the middle of a heated playoff chase as the season winds down, and every game from here on out carries significant weight. After dropping a tough one on Sunday, they return tonight against the Guardians with a chance to respond and keep their postseason hopes alive. Just two games behind the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot, the Royals know the margin for error is razor thin. With the Rangers also in striking distance, Kansas City’s offense must stay hot, and tonight presents another prime opportunity to deliver early runs.
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Last Month: 57-86 (+2.78u)
Last Week: 10-18 (-1.47u)
Royals vs. Guardians Best Bets – September 8
Can Bobby Witt Jr. be the spark this Royals offense needs tonight?
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Coming off a tough loss on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals look to bounce back tonight against the Guardians and continue their playoff push. Sitting two games behind the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot, the Royals also have the Texas Rangers creeping up in the standings just a game and a half back of Seattle.
These last 20 games of the season are critical for Kansas City, and every win matters as they fight for a second straight postseason appearance.
That is why I want to back them early tonight. Their first five team total is set at 1.5 and priced at $1.40. This is exactly the type of number I want. I already liked the Royals in this matchup against Guardians right hander Slade Cecconi, but I love it even more knowing I only need two early runs. I say it every time a team’s first five line is set at 1.5 and I will say it again. IT IS A GIFT.
The Gift
“If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average over two runs in the first five innings anyway, and you are getting a prop on an offense you trust against a pitcher who likely does not deserve that level of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me
Royals Trends
Kansas City enters today with the third highest rated offense according to Batters-Box. They feature four elite rated hitters and two more rated as great. Over the last four weeks on the road, they rank inside the top ten in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS. This offense has been locked in for much of the second half and has been even better on the road, where they are the ninth best first five scoring team, averaging over 2.5 runs in that span.
As mentioned, they get a favorable matchup against a struggling Guardians right hander. Cecconi has allowed over 44% hard contact this year, the highest rate among today’s starters. At home, he owns a 5.37 ERA, giving up 6.3 hits and 3.6 runs per start. Over his last five outings, he has an 8.28 ERA and 6.62 xERA while allowing 60% hard contact and a 15.6% barrel rate. Opposing hitters during that stretch own a .317 xBA, .631 xSLG, and .407 xwOBA.
The 26-year-old has surrendered at least two runs in 16 of his 19 starts this season. At home, he has allowed more than 1.5 runs in eight of his nine outings.
All signs point to Kansas City being in a strong offensive position tonight, and the number set by the books feels far too soft. The Royals have been one of the most reliable lineups in baseball down the stretch, and they now draw a matchup against a pitcher who has been consistently hit hard and has struggled in nearly every metric. With the stakes at their highest and a playoff push on the line, I trust Kansas City to deliver early. Two runs in the first five is well within reach, and this price is nothing short of a gift.
Bonus Play
Last week I grabbed the Royals to make the playoffs at 10-to-1. That number was simply too good to pass up. I only sprinkled on it, but it is absolutely worth having action on. Kansas City has flipped a switch down the stretch and has put themselves in position to make a real run at a postseason spot. With how they are playing right now, those odds were far too generous, and I wanted to be all over them.
Best Bet: Royals First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-140) odds via BetOnline
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