Rockies vs Royals: Vinnie Pasquantino steps into a smash spot tonight. The Royals slugger is overdue for a breakout, and the underlying metrics back it up. With German Márquez struggling mightily to open the season, this is a matchup worth circling.
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Last week Betting MLB: 23-37 (-0.93u)
Rockies vs Royals Odds
Will we see Italian fireworks tonight?
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Runline
Rockies: +1.5 (-124)
Royals: -1.5 (+104)
Total
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+102)
Moneyline
Rockies: +173
Royals: -192
Rockies vs Royals Best Bet
The Italian Nightmare, Vinnie Pasquantino, enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. The Royals’ big fella hasn’t cleared this prop since April 18th and has not gone deep since the 12th. Is he due? Sure feels like it.
When rocking an elite rating, Pasquantino records a hit 61% of the time, goes over this prop 33% of the time, and clears 1.5 HRR in 55.6% of those games. That’s over an 18-elite-rating sample size, per Batters-Box.com.
Today, he draws German Márquez—who’s been brutal to start the season. He’s carrying an 8.27 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP, and has allowed 5+ hits and 4+ runs in each of his last three starts. Per FanGraphs, 63% of his pitches are below league value. His fastball is barely above water, and his overall pitch repertoire sits at -2.13.
Márquez is also a below-average matchup in ISO, hard contact, and strikeout rate. He’s giving up over 37% hard contact to opposing hitters, and Pasquantino has a +22% hard contact change against him.
Vinnie’s career numbers against Márquez’s arsenal are solid—but with how bad the Rockies’ righty has been, the value on this prop looks awfully good.
Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquantio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) odds via BetOnline
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