Rockies vs. Padres: The Rockies have not exactly been the most reliable lineup to target this season, but today sets up differently. Mickey Moniak steps into a prime opportunity to get back on track against a vulnerable Padres starter in Randy Vasquez. Moniak has been mired in a short slump, but his advanced numbers and matchup-specific data suggest a turnaround is due. When he carries an elite rating, he tends to deliver, and the trends point toward production in this spot. With Vasquez struggling against left-handed bats, Moniak has the perfect chance to bounce back and provide real value on his total bases.
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Rockies vs. Padres Best Bets – September 11
Can Mickey Moniak snap this hitless streak?
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We head to the late-night matchup in San Diego, where the Padres host the Colorado Pebbles-sorry, Rockies. San Diego remains in the hunt for the top spot in the NL West, sitting three games behind the Dodgers. With four games against Colorado, the Padres have a chance to close the gap in the division race. That is their concern, not ours. Our focus shifts to the Rockies, a team no longer fighting for postseason position and now simply playing for pride.
The first time all season I am trusting a Rockies hitter to go over 1.5 total bases. Today feels like the spot. Colorado right fielder Mickey Moniak is overdue for some action at the plate. He has not recorded a hit since Saturday, when he went 2-5 with a home run. Since then, he has gone 0-11.
Bounce Back Mickey
The 27-year-old outfielder enters today with an elite rating in the current season timeframe on Batters-Box. This will mark his 32nd game with that tag. In his other 31, he has recorded a hit 71% of the time, cleared this prop 52% of the time, and homered in 32% of them.
Despite the slump, over his last ten games he owns a .278 xBA, .360 xwOBA, and 161 wRC+. While it would be ideal if this game were in Denver, the matchup itself makes this a strong bounce back spot for the Rockie. Padres starter Randy Vasquez has been vulnerable against left-handed bats all season, giving plenty of reasons to be all over Moniak tonight in San Diego.
Moniak vs. Vasquez
He faces Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who has struggled against left-handed hitters. They are hitting .270 with a .431 SLG, .350 wOBA, and .801 OPS against him. The last 60 lefties he has faced own a .329 xBA, .558 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA, while producing nearly 50% hard contact and an 11% barrel rate.
To make matters worse, Vasquez has only one pitch above league average. His sinker, which makes up 19% of his mix, is the lone bright spot. That means 81% of his arsenal is in the negative. Moniak against sinkers owns a .294 BA, .855 OPS, and 144 wRC+ this season. Against the rest, his numbers remain strong.
Moniak just faced Vasquez in his last start, going 2-5 with a home run. Fittingly, that was the last time he recorded a hit.
This is a bet on the matchup as much as it is on the hitter. Moniak’s elite rating history, combined with Vasquez’s struggles against left-handed bats, creates an appealing spot for a Rockies hitter who has already had success against this pitcher.
The recent slump is concerning, but his expected stats tell a different story, one that suggests positive regression is coming. Baseball is full of streaks, and Moniak has too much supporting data in his favor to ignore. If there is ever a time to trust a Colorado bat away from Coors, this feels like the right moment. I love the price, matchup and the due factor. Sprinkle on the home run for some an extra fun sweat!
Come on MICKEY!!
Best Bet: Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) odds via BetOnline
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