Rockies vs. Padres:
Friday night sets up perfectly for some fireworks in San Diego. The Padres welcome the Rockies for another matchup, and we are heading right back to the bread and butter with a first five team total angle. San Diego’s offense has been heating up and the matchup against a struggling arm makes this spot too good to ignore. The Rockies have consistently given up runs early on the road, and tonight looks like more of the same. Add in a bonus player prop with sneaky value, and we have a strong setup to kick off the weekend card.
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Last Month: 54-89 (-3.31u)
Last Week: 8-28 (-7.91u)
Rockies vs. Padres Best Bets – September 12
Can Fernando Tatis Jr. propel the Padres to another win over the Pebbles?
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Time to head back to the bread and butter. We are rolling with the Padres first five team total over 2.5 at $1.30. Despite pushing across only two runs last night in their win over the Rockies, tonight feels like an explosive Friday for San Diego. While the Padres have averaged under 2.5 runs at home this season, the Rockies have consistently allowed over three runs in the first five on the road.
Colorado hands the ball to right hander Tanner Gordon, who has struggled all year with a 6.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. On the road it gets even worse, though the sample size is small. Just last week he faced the Padres, giving up six runs on six hits in only 3.2 innings. Is more pain coming tonight? I lean heavily toward yes.
San Diego enters with the top rated offense on Batters-Box, featuring six elite hitters, one rated great, and very few ground ball bats. On the other side, Sears carries the worst pitcher rating on the slate, grading poorly in every key stat—wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout rate, and ground ball percentage. He is allowing over 46% hard contact this year.
The Padres have also been strong against right handers recently, with a wRC+ over 100, wOBA north of .310, and OPS above .730 across the last two weeks. That is a nightmare matchup for a starter with an 11.20 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in his last three road outings.
Although there is juice attached to this prop, I believe it is fair. If you want to avoid laying it, pair it with my bonus play below and the return will be plus money.
Bonus Play
Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman is a strong look in this matchup. The 25-year-old went 0-4 last night but had a two-game hit streak before that, and last weekend against San Diego he collected two home runs and a double. He now gets southpaw JP Sears, who throws everything into Goodman’s wheelhouse. Over 60% of Sears’ pitches grade below league average. His slider is his go-to at 34%, but Goodman is the Rockies’ top bat against sliders, producing a +6 run value with a .281 average, .500 slugging, and .388 wOBA against the pitch, along with over 50% hard contact.
Sears has also struggled mightily against righties, with the last 60 posting a .342 xBA, .571 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA. Meanwhile, Goodman has mashed lefties, hitting .309 with a .437 wOBA and 1.022 OPS across his last 60 faced.
Everything lines up for Goodman to do damage, and the Rockies continue to fight hard despite being out of contention.
The Padres have all the ingredients to make this a profitable Friday night. Their offense has been trending up, the matchup against Gordon is as favorable as it gets, and the Rockies’ road pitching numbers continue to be a liability. Add in the bonus angle on Hunter Goodman, who is positioned well against southpaw Sears, and there is plenty of value on the board. Even with some juice attached to the main play, the confidence is there. Pair it with the player prop and you can flip it into plus money. A solid way to close out the night.
Bonus: Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Best Bet: Padres First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-130) odds via BetOnline
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