Rockies vs. Mariners: Analyzing the Pitching Matchup

Rockies vs. Mariners: The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, and they are showing no signs of cooling off. Winners of nine of their last ten, sitting four games ahead of the Astros in the AL West, this team has been playing with the kind of confidence and fire that makes them must-watch down the stretch.

Tonight, they step into a matchup that could not line up any better for their offense. Colorado is handing the ball to Tanner Gordon, a pitcher who has been shelled all season and continues to allow barrels, hard contact, and crooked numbers. With Seattle’s lineup in rhythm and Gordon trending in the wrong direction, this is the kind of spot where you want to be early, because the bats could break things wide open fast. Scroll down for why this number feels like a gift.

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Rockies vs. Mariners Best Bets – September 24

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One of the hottest teams in baseball right now, and a group that does not look ready to cool off any time soon, is the Seattle Mariners. They hold a four-game lead over the Astros in the AL West and have gone 9-1 in their last ten games. This is a team in rhythm, and I want to ride their wave of momentum. Tonight sets up as a prime spot to back the Seattle offense against one of the weakest arms on the slate.

Seattle’s Trends

The Mariners enter with the highest rated offense today, featuring nine elite hitters, one great, two above the league strikeout rate, and one above the league ground ball rate according to Batters-Box’s default ratings. On season ratings, they hold seven elite, two great, and three above the strikeout rate. Over the last two weeks they have been a top ten offense, and over the last month they have ranked top five against right-handed pitching.

Gordon vs. Mariners

Colorado throws out right hander, Tanner Gordon, who owns the worst pitcher rating of the day. His matchup metrics are poor across the board, including wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. He has allowed 50% hard contact this year. Typically, Rockies pitchers perform better on the road due to the high elevation at Coors Field, but Gordon has been significantly worse away from home. This season he carries a 7.40 ERA on the road, giving up more than six hits and four runs per start, with opponents batting .324 against him.

His recent form is no better. In his last three outings he has a 5.74 ERA, 5.10 xERA, and an alarming 3.45 HR/9. During that stretch hitters have posted a .257 xBA, .596 xSLG, and .364 xwOBA.

With Gordon’s struggles and the amount of hard contact he allows, Seattle’s first five matchup looks explosive. I am backing the Mariners first five team total over 2.5 at $1.30. I love the number and the price, and I am stunned this line is not 3.5. I will gladly pay the juice to be on the right side of this one.

Best Bet: Mariners First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-130) odds via BetOnline

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