Rockies vs. Astros: The first five market has been a steady spot to attack, and we are heading right back to it this afternoon in Houston. The Astros and Rockies wrap up their three-game set, and on paper, the matchup looks one-sided. Houston turns to Jason Alexander, while Colorado counters with a familiar left-handed arm who has struggled to keep opposing lineups quiet. The number on this game caught my attention the moment it dropped, and with the way these teams line up against one another, the edge feels too strong to pass up. The metrics and recent trends point toward one side having a clear path to early success, and that is exactly where we will look to strike.
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Rockies vs. Astros Best Bets – August 28
Can Yordan Alvarez flash his power this afternoon?
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Let us keep the first five team total props rolling after we cashed on the Rangers last night, when they put up a couple touchdowns on the Angels. Shockingly, there was not a single Angel in the outfield that could stop that massacre.
This afternoon marks the third and final game of this three-game series in Houston between the Astros and Rockies. Houston enters as a heavy favorite with Jason Alexander on the mound. No, not George Costanza, the other guy, the pitcher. Meanwhile, the Rockies send out veteran left-hander Kyle Freeland, a familiar name if you follow my daily MLB write-ups.
If you guessed, “I bet we are taking the Astros first five team total,” you would be correct. The number is set at 2.5 and priced at $1.25. That is where my money is going this afternoon.
Freeland’s Trends
Our good friend Mr. Freeland carries a 5.31 ERA on the season with a 1.52 WHIP. On average, he allows 6.5 hits, 2.08 extra-base hits, and 3.58 runs per start this year.
The 32-year-old enters today with the lowest pitcher rating on the slate (minimum 100 IP), per Batters-Box. He ranks poorly in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact percentage, and strikeout rate. Over the last three years, Freeland has surrendered almost 50% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Like many Rockies pitchers, the southpaw has slightly better numbers away from Coors Field, with a 4.56 ERA, 5.9 hits allowed, and 3.0 runs per start on the road. However, those numbers are still far from strong. He has allowed at least three runs in nine of his 13 road starts this season.
What stands out most is the gap between his ERA and expected ERA. Over his last three road outings, Freeland owns a 4.11 ERA, but his xERA is 6.22. In his last five, his ERA is 4.67, but his xERA balloons to 6.88. When he finds success, it is often luck-driven. Over those last five road starts, he has allowed over 63% hard contact, a 14.3% barrel rate, and 2.33 HR/9. Opposing hitters have crushed him with a .328 xBA, .580 xSLG, and .414 xwOBA.
Astros Offense
The Astros enter today with the highest-rated offense on the slate, backed by five elite-rated hitters per Batters-Box. Seven of their top eight bats this afternoon will swing from the right side, which is exactly the matchup Houston wants. Right-handed hitters have given Freeland the most trouble all season, as he owns a 5.07 ERA, 5.37 xERA, and 4.26 xFIP against them. He also allows 46% hard contact, a 10.6% barrel rate, and 1.54 HR/9 to right-handed bats, who are posting a sub-.300 xBA, sub-.500 xSLG, and a .334 xwOBA against him.
This sets up as an ideal spot to back an Astros offense that is overdue for an eruption. They managed four runs in last night’s victory, but facing a pitcher like Freeland could be exactly what they need to break out.
Houston has consistently ranked among the league’s best against left-handed pitching. This season, they sit sixth in wRC+, seventh in wOBA, seventh in OPS, and seventh in hard-hit rate.
With the series on the line and an “easier” matchup with the Angels coming up, this is a critical game for Houston. After the Angels, they face a gauntlet: the Yankees, the resurgent Rangers, and then the Blue Jays in Toronto. That makes these winnable games absolutely necessary.
The Astros cannot afford to let opportunities like this slip away. The expectation is that they will jump on Freeland early and set the tone. Hopefully, we see them all over him this afternoon.
Best Bet: Astros First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-125) odds via BetOnline
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