NL Wild Card: Reds vs Dodgers Game Analysis

Game 1: The postseason is here and game one of the NL Wild Card features the Reds heading west to battle the Dodgers. Cincinnati is young, raw, and facing the reigning champs. I am looking to fade them early, and one player prop already stands out as must-play value.

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Reds vs. Dodgers Best Bets – September 30

Can Shohei Ohtani kick off the Wild Card with a nuke?

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Game one of the NL Wild Card series has the Reds heading to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. I am not sold on this Reds team whatsoever. Their youth and inexperience feel far from ready for the grind of October baseball, especially against the reigning champion Dodgers. Yes, Terry Francona is a legendary head coach, but that does not move the needle enough for me. Which is why I will be looking to fade Cincinnati in some form over the next few days. For game one, I already have a player prop locked in, and the numbers are backing me on this one. NL MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani to go over 1.5 bases at -115 is the play I am targeting.

Trust the Trends

Heading into Tuesday, Ohtani carries a Batters-Box rating well above 0.60 on both timeframes. Why is 0.60 so important? Because when Ohtani grades that high, it is almost an automatic play. This will be his 75th such game over the past three seasons, and the results speak for themselves:

84% 1+ Hit
35% 2+ Hits
65% 2+ Bases
49% 3+ Bases
78% 2+ HRR
55% 3+ HRR
32% Home Run
22% Double

At -115, the line implies a 53% chance of cashing, yet Ohtani has cleared this prop 65% of the time in elite-rating games. That is undeniable value on the Dodgers’ slugger. Narrow it further to elite ratings at home and he has at least one hit 67% of the time, clears this prop 50% of the time, and goes yard 28% of the time.

Normally, I avoid paying juice on total bases props, no matter the hitter. If you are the same, the double and home run props offer bigger upside. I want to play it safe here, since I will be stacking multiple props to start the postseason.

Greene vs. Ohtani

Ohtani also draws a strong matchup against Reds starter Hunter Greene, who has struggled mightily on the road this year. In eight road starts, he holds a 4.81 ERA with opponents hitting north of .270. Left handed hitters in particular are finding success, batting .250 with a .311 OBP, .544 SLG, and .363 wOBA. Greene relies on his fastball 54% of the time, which is dangerous against Ohtani. Against four-seamers this season, Ohtani is batting .259 with a .949 OPS and 167 wRC+. Greene’s secondary mix of sliders and splitters has not fared much better, as Ohtani posts similar or even stronger numbers against both.

Ohtani checks every box for me in this matchup. The numbers, trends, and opponent all line up to give us value on his total bases prop. Greene’s road struggles set the stage, and Ohtani’s bat speaks for itself. I am backing the MVP to deliver in game one.

Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) odds via BetOnline

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