Reds vs. Cubs: Elly De La Cruz is set up perfectly in this matchup. The metrics, trends, and mispriced odds all scream value tonight. Let us dive into why this spot is too good to pass up.
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Last Month: 52-95 (-2.88u)
Last Week: 21-20 (+7.61u)
Red vs. Cubs Best Bets – August 4
Will Elly De La Cruz show up and show out tonight, with his props mispriced to the high heavens?
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I do not understand these prices, which is exactly why I am giving out all three in this write-up. Let me preface this—be okay with losing. All three props below are mispriced. Does that mean they will all hit? No. This is sports. However, sometimes finding the wrong price is the win in itself. We have won simply by being on the right side of a wrong number.
Alright, I digress. Let us get to the read for these plays.
Reds star shortstop Elly De La Cruz enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box as he faces newly added Cub, Michael Soroka—not to be confused with Mike Soroka, even though it is the same guy.
De La Cruz vs. Soroka
Over Soroka’s last 90 plate appearances against left-handed hitters, opponents own a .315 xBA, .516 xSLG, and .309 xwOBA. The 28-year-old right-hander throws nearly 50% fastballs, which grade below league average, as does his changeup. Those two pitches make up 55% of his arsenal. De La Cruz has strong metrics against all four of Soroka’s offerings—he crushes over 80% of his mix.
The speed demon switch-hitter also owns some great road trends when rated elite. According to Batters-Box, in 40 road games where he held an elite rating, De La Cruz recorded a hit 67.5% of the time, two hits 30%, over 1.5 total bases 50%, and over 1.5 HRR 52.5%.
Hanigraphs backs it up: over his last 90 road plate appearances, De La Cruz has a .293 batting average, .905 OPS, and a 41% hard-hit rate.
Misprices of the Day
The prices below are just insane to me. Sure, he is not known for nukes, but north of 7/1 for a homer? He still has serious pop and is well worth the sprinkle. When he gets on base, he is always a threat to score, so I can absolutely see him having a big night on the North Side.
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