Reds vs. Mets: Pete Alonso Player Props | July 18, 2025

Reds vs. Mets: Pete Alonso is back in Queens and has the perfect setup for a big night at the plate. When the books hang plus money on his bases prop, it always catches my attention—especially in a spot like this. He checks every box analytically and owns elite splits in this matchup. Let us dive into why the Mets slugger is worth backing tonight.

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Last Month: 45-112 (-20.6u)

Last Week: 5-10 (-0.6u)

Reds vs. Mets Best Bets – July 18

Pete Alonso fired up after hit - player props

Are Pete Alonso’s bases prop a-go?

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I always find it so odd when checking Pete Alonso’s bases prop on a day I believe it is a great spot for him, and it is listed at plus money. Alonso is one of the most consistent hitters in all of baseball. Put some respect on my guy’s name.

Just off that alone, when owning an elite rating at home on Batters-Box, he records at least:

Hit: 78%
2+ Hits: 37%
2+ Bases: 60%
Home Run: 28%

Are the Trends Your Friend?

That is over a 32-game sample size dating back the last three seasons. In 60% of those elite home games, he has cleared this prop. That is insane. Alonso is also the only hitter rated elite in both the default and current season metrics in this matchup. On top of that, the Mets first baseman is batting .275 with a .879 OPS at home this season.

Lodolo vs. Alonso

Today he faces Reds starter Nick Lodolo, one of the better ground-ball pitchers in all of baseball. Lodolo leans heavily on his changeup, throwing it 22% of the time. That pitch has been his best this season, but Pete Alonso has handled changeups extremely well—posting a .276 batting average, .969 OPS, and 181 wRC+ against them. Alonso also owns strong numbers against the rest of Lodolo’s arsenal, making this a tough matchup for the lefty. The Reds starter holds a poorly rated average hitter matchup ISO in Batters-Box’s default settings.

Alonso has a strong edge here—his hard contact rate versus changeups matches up well against Lodolo. His home run to fly ball rate also improves in this spot. Alonso is the bat to be on tonight in Queens. Hopefully, the trends continue to be our friends.

Let’s Go METE!! (Not a typo)

Best Bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) odds via BetOnline

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