Red Sox vs. Yankees: Game 2 Analysis and Insights

Game 2: The Wild Card series always delivers drama, and Game 2 between the Yankees and Red Sox is no exception. This matchup has been circled on my calendar all week for one reason: Carlos Rodon. When the lights are brightest and every pitch matters, you want to know which arms you can trust and which ones you cannot.

For me, Rodon falls squarely into the second category. His track record against Boston is shaky, his postseason numbers are alarming, and the advanced metrics suggest regression is coming. That creates a prime opportunity for bettors to find value in fading him early. Whether it is team totals or player props, the board offers multiple angles to capitalize on Rodon’s vulnerabilities.

Game 2 is shaping up as a spot where Boston’s bats can take control, and there are wagers worth circling if you are willing to dig into the numbers.

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Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 2 Best Bets – October 1

Can Romy Gonzalez propel the Red Sox to the second round?

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A game I have had circled all week for one reason and one reason only: Carlos Rodon. I already wrote earlier this week about fading him by taking his postseason ERA over 3.09, because I believe he is overdue for a bad outing. The advanced metrics back that stance, and his track record in both the postseason and against the Red Sox offers little confidence, even for a Yankees fan. That is why I like two plays in Game 2. First, the Red Sox team total over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at plus money.

Fade Rodon

The Red Sox have owned Rodon this season. In three starts against them, the lefty has a 5.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, surrendering 11 runs, 11 hits, and 10 walks. The postseason numbers are even worse: a 6.64 ERA across 20.1 innings. His recent form suggests overperformance as well, with a 5.80 xERA, 4.26 xFIP, and 42% hard contact rate over his last three outings. Hitters in that stretch have posted a 23% line drive rate, .276 xBA, .489 xSLG, and .385 xwOBA.

Gonzalez vs. Rodon

Rodon’s struggles extend against right handed bats. The last 60 righties he has faced have a .302 xBA, .443 xSLG, and a 25% line drive rate. That sets up perfectly for Romy Gonzalez, who thrives against left handed pitching. His total bases prop at 1.5 is set at +210, and I love it. Gonzalez has crushed lefties this year, hitting .328 on the road with a .607 SLG, 1.001 OPS, and 165 wRC+.

The advanced hitting trends are just as strong. According to Batters-Box, in 19 elite ratings this year Gonzalez has recorded a hit 63% of the time, 2+ hits 47%, doubles 31%, 2+ bases 58%, and 2+ hits, runs, and RBI 63%. He has gone over 1.5 bases in six of his last ten elite ratings. That is more than enough reason to back him against a lefty who looks primed to regress.

Game 2 sets up as another chance to take advantage of Rodon’s underlying issues, and the Red Sox are the perfect lineup to expose them. With Boston’s success against him this season, his shaky postseason history, and his recent metrics screaming regression, the value sits firmly on fading him early.

The Red Sox team total in the first five innings gives us a direct way to attack, while Romy Gonzalez’s elite profile against lefties provides a high-upside player prop to pair it with. Put together, both plays build a sharp and consistent case for fading Rodon under the lights.

Best Bet: Red Sox First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (+115) & Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 Bases (+210) BetOnline

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