Red Sox vs. Blue Jays: Tonight’s matchup carries huge implications for the AL East, and the stakes could not be higher. Yankee fans are quietly rooting for the Red Sox, knowing that every Red Sox win brings their team closer to surpassing the Blue Jays in the standings. For anyone backing the Yankees to take the division, this game is massive, and every swing, pitch, and run could shift the balance of power.
The pitching matchup adds drama to an already high-stakes contest. Max Scherzer, a future Hall of Famer, toes the rubber for the Blue Jays, but his recent struggles make this an opportunity for bettors who know how to read the numbers. Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense, featuring some dangerous bats, look poised to take advantage. Tonight, strategy, skill, and timing intersect in a way that could reshape the division race. The props market is quietly offering a gift to those paying attention, and the stage is set for a thrilling evening.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Best Bets – September 24
Can the Red Sox continue their success against the Blue Jays?
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Arguably the biggest game of the night for Yankee fans and Blue Jays fans, because every Red Sox win makes it more likely that the Yankees surpass Toronto in the standings and steal the AL East from the Blue Birds. As someone holding a sub five-to-one ticket on the Yankees to win the division, this matchup carries extra weight. Fortunately, I like a play that leans directly into the drama.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to veteran right hander Max Scherzer, who has been a mess in recent outings. For that reason, I want to back the Red Sox first five team total over 1.5, priced at $1.30. I always say this is one of the most valuable numbers on the board. If you like an offense to succeed, a first five team total over 1.5 is a gift.
“If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average more than two runs in the first five innings, and you are betting on an offense you already trust against a pitcher who likely does not deserve that level of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me
Tonight, the Red Sox bring the third highest rated offense on Batters-Box, with three elite rated hitters, three graded as great, three above the league strikeout rate, and only one elevated in ground ball rate.
Red Sox vs. Scherzer
Meanwhile, Scherzer holds the second worst pitcher rating on the slate and is giving up over 40 percent hard contact. In his last five starts he has a 9.45 ERA and a 6.37 xERA. Boston will send five of its top six rated hitters from the left side, and Scherzer has been brutal against lefties. The last 30 he has faced have tagged him for a 9.53 ERA, 7.10 xERA, 66.7 percent hard contact, and a ridiculous 27.8 percent barrel rate. For context, league average sits around 30-35 percent for hard contact and 8-10 percent for barrel rate. Those numbers are off the charts. During that same stretch, lefties have a .505 xBA, 1.080 xSLG, and .419 xwOBA against him.
If Scherzer somehow shoves and delivers an iconic performance in a must-win game, so be it. I have to ride with the number and the mispriced prop. Does Vegas truly know baseball? We will find out tonight.
Best Bet: Red Sox First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-130) odds via BetOnline
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