Red Sox vs. Angels: Garrett Crochet draws a dream matchup tonight against a strikeout-heavy Angels lineup. The data backs a ceiling performance. This is a prime spot to break out the ladder.
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Last Month: 71-154 (-15.24u)
Last Week: 14-37 (-8.25u)
Ice cold June, but we went up +2.5 units last night.
Red Sox vs. Angels Best Bet – June 24
Will this left hander deliver the magic tonight in LA?
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The fifth highest-rated pitcher on Batters-Box today is Red Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet. He owns the second-highest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage at 35%, and the highest in the current season at 41%. To give you an idea of how high 41% is—pitchers with an average hitter matchup strikeout percentage of 32% or greater record 6+ strikeouts 60% of the time.
In 22 elite-rated matchups over the last three seasons, the star lefty has recorded eight strikeouts 36% of the time, nine strikeouts 27%, and 10 strikeouts 13%. In 28 elite-rated average hitter matchup spots, those rates improve to 42%, 28%, and 21%.
This season, the sample size is small—but worth noting. In five elite-rated games, he has hit eight strikeouts 80% of the time, nine in 60%, and 10 in 40%. Again, small sample, but interesting to see.
Crochet has gone over this prop in six of his 16 starts this season. He has reached eight strikeouts nine times. He has flashed dominance against some of the best lineups in baseball. Tonight, he faces one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in the league—the Los Angeles Angels.
Swing Happy Angels
The Angels rank dead last in strikeout percentage against left-handers (28%), while hitting just .218 with an 80 wRC. At home, they also rank last in strikeout rate (28.1%). They are second-highest in strikeouts over the last 30 days, and fourth-highest over the last 14 and seven days.
It might seem like a lot of strikeouts, but I believe this is priced correctly—and I will be all over it this evening.
If you are wondering—yes, yes I did ladder this bad boy all the way up. How could I not? The stats are begging for it. Here is what I played: 10+ K’s (+210), 11+ K’s (+370), 12+ K’s (+700), and 13+ K’s (+1300).
DO NOT BE A PSYCHO!! SPRINKLE THE LADDERED PROPS!
Best Bet: Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+125) odds via BetOnline
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