Red Sox vs. Twins: Bailey Ober returns to the mound after a month-long absence, and the timing could not be worse. The Red Sox have been one of the hottest road offenses in baseball, and they match up extremely well against him. With shaky recent home splits and poor advanced metrics, Ober is in trouble today.
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Red Sox vs. Twins Best Bets – July 30
Will the Red Sox be able to get after Bailey Ober?
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It has been over a month since Twins right-hander Bailey Ober last touched the rubber, sidelined with a hip injury. Now fully recovered, he returns to face a Red Sox offense that has been swinging it well over the past three weeks. Boston owns a 130 wRC+, an .848 OPS, and a 37% hard-hit rate during that stretch, per Handigraphs.
On the road this season, the Red Sox have played some of their best ball. They rank fourth in first five scoring, averaging 2.72 runs per game. Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 10th worst in first five runs allowed at home, giving up an average of 2.47 runs. Today’s Boston lineup features six elite-rated hitters, with only three above the league strikeout rate and just two above the league ground ball rate, per Batters-Box current season ratings.
Red Sox vs. Ober
Batters-Box also rates Ober as the worst starting pitcher on the slate. He owns bottom-tier marks in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. He is allowing nearly 42% hard contact this season. Over his last 27 innings at home, Ober has a 6.67 ERA, a 42.7% hard-hit rate, and is giving up 3.0 home runs per nine innings. Opposing hitters have a .324 xBA and a .723 xSLG against him. In nine home starts this season, the 30-year-old is allowing 3.11 runs per game. Overall, he is surrendering 6.3 hits, 2.5 extra-base hits, and 3.2 runs per outing. Before landing on the IL, he had allowed more than this prop in six straight starts.
When it comes to first five team totals, 1.5 runs is always a gift in my eyes. Anything priced below -165 is a go, because it is more about securing the better number than the best price—assuming the price is reasonable. When the line is 2.5, then the price starts to matter more. With that in mind, this is a must-bet play today.
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