Red Sox vs. Cubs: Baseball is back and we are diving right into some early action at Wrigley. The Red Sox were scorching hot heading into the break, and they could not have asked for a better matchup to keep it going. Let us take a look at why Boston’s first five team total is a strong target today.
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Red Sox vs. Cubs Best Bets – July 18
Can the Red Sox keep their winning streak alive after the break?
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Welcome back from the break. I hope everyone had a great few days off—I certainly did. Now we are fully back with day baseball on the North Side, featuring one of the hottest teams before the break. The Boston Red Sox closed out the first half by winning ten straight games. The question now is—can they carry that momentum into the second half?
I believe they can.
That is why we will be all over their first five team total over 1.5, priced at $1.45 on some books. I always say that when targeting over 1.5 runs, the number matters more than the price. For totals above 2.5, price becomes more important.
Boston holds the third-best road offense this season and ranks first in offensive production over the last 14 days. They are firing on all cylinders, with four elite-rated hitters in today’s lineup according to Batters-Box. Additionally, the lineup includes one hitter above league average in strikeout rate and four above average in ground ball rate. On the season, the Red Sox are averaging 2.73 runs in the first five innings, and 2.83 when playing on the road. They have been playing some of their best baseball away from Fenway Park.
Red Sox vs. Rea
They face Cubs starter Colin Rea, who currently has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box. He also grades poorly in wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout percentage. The right-hander is allowing nearly 40% hard contact this season. His pitch mix is also below average, with 65% of his arsenal grading under league average, per FanGraphs.
Left-handed hitters are crushing Rea this season, batting .327 with a .543 slugging percentage and a wOBA under .400 at Wrigley. All four of the Red Sox’s elite hitters are left-handed.
This looks like a strong spot to target. Even if Boston cools slightly after the break, Rea has allowed 2.5 runs per home start all season. This is worth paying the juice and should be a fun one to watch this afternoon.
Best Bet: Red Sox First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-145) odds via BetOnline
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