Rays vs. Guardians: One player can carry a team while the rest of the lineup struggles, and tonight that player is Brandon Lowe. The Rays’ second baseman has been dominant on the road this season, hitting with both power and consistency, making him one of the most dangerous bats in the league away from Tampa.
He faces Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who has struggled against left-handed hitters in recent weeks, giving Lowe a clear edge in this matchup. Every trend, matchup, and stat points toward a big night for Lowe, from his elite road splits to his success against similar pitchers. I am backing him to go over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in Cleveland.
This is a spot where everything aligns perfectly for him to deliver. Let us break down why tonight could be a prime example of Lowe carrying the offense on his shoulders.
Let us get into the full write-up and have ourselves a great week!
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Rays vs. Guardians Best Bets – August 25
Can Brandon Lowe be that spark the Rays need this evening?
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Writing anything where I need a Ray to succeed, while sweating out their season win total under, is always a nice way to feel alive in my opinion. Rooting for one player to dominate, while the rest of the team crumbles, has its own thrill. That is exactly what I will be doing tonight, backing Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe to go over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI this evening in Cleveland.
The 31-year-old seasoned veteran has been playing some of his best ball on the road this season, which is surprising, given that most of his teammates have been thriving at the Minor League ballpark they call home in 2025. Lowe owns a .301 average, .362 OBP, .522 SLG, and .884 OPS away from Tampa this season.
Lowe’s Trends
Lowe has also carried strong trends when receiving an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 15 elite ratings on the road this season, Lowe records at least a hit 86% of the time, a run 80% of the time, and exceeds this prop 80% of the time. In Lowe’s last ten elite ratings this season, he has surpassed this prop eight times. He has homered in 40% of those games. For extra fun, I added his sub-4/1 home run today.
For a larger sample size, in the default ratings, he holds a “Great” rating dating back three seasons. In 68 Great ratings, he records a hit 66% of the time and exceeds this prop 54% of the time. In his last ten Great ratings, he has gone over this prop six times.
Lowe vs. Bibee
Today, the Guardians start Tanner Bibee, who has struggled against left-handed hitters over the past few weeks. In the last 60 left-handed hitters Bibee has faced, they own a .356 xBA, .821 xSLG, and .410 xwOBA. Those hitters have a 48.7% hard hit rate and 20.5% barrel rate during that span. In his last 30 left-handers faced, those numbers remain nearly identical, and the same holds for his last 90.
It only gets better.
Bibee has five pitches in his arsenal, 59% of which are below league average. His best pitch, the slider, is thrown only 18% of the time. Lowe has struggled slightly against sliders this season but still maintains a 38% hard hit rate against that pitch. Against the rest of Bibee’s offerings, Lowe is excelling, posting an average of .284 or higher, .851 OPS or better, and a wRC+ of 141 or higher.
After going 0-3 yesterday against the Cardinals, this feels like a prime spot for Lowe to replicate his Friday performance, when he left the yard. If you prefer not to pay for juice, his bases prop is priced at a tasty +145 on some books. I still prefer the HRR option. At $1.05, it is a solid price based on his trends and success against Bibee’s pitches.
Rotowire has Lowe hitting in the three-hole tonight, with Simpson and Diaz ahead of him. There is a real chance to cash this prop early if Lowe drives in a run with a base knock.
Weather
There is a possible delay to the start due to spotty showers, per RotoGrinders. Personally, I view this as a potential advantage for hitters, especially if the starting pitcher has to warm up twice and disrupts his game-day routine. Do not let rain deter you from a great spot. If the game is canceled, we can ride it tomorrow morning.
Best Bet: Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-105) odds via BetOnline
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