Rays vs. Tigers: Jonathan Aranda is heating back up at the plate and finds himself in a dream matchup tonight. The lefty bat gets to face one of the weakest right-handed starters on the slate. With elite pitch splits and recent momentum, this is a spot worth targeting.
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Last Month: 58-139 (-22.2u)
Last Week: 7-22 (-6.25u)
The cold streak continues. I strongly suggest either taking any hitter I give out just to record a hit and pairing it with someone else for plus money—or fully fading the pick altogether.
Rays vs. Tigers Best Bets – July 7
Will Jonathan Aranda bring the fireworks to The D?
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Welcome in and happy Monday. It is time to go back to one of the best names in baseball and ride his bases prop. That is right—Jonathan Aranda is a go. He holds the second-highest rating in this matchup and is coming off a three-hit game on Sunday, all singles. Before that, he doubled on Saturday, snapping a three-game hitless drought.
Aranda vs. Montero
He seems to be locking back in, and tonight in Detroit he faces Tigers right-hander Keider Montero, who has the third-worst pitcher rating among all starters today. Montero owns poor ratings in matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. Left-handed hitters have been dominating him all season, batting .326 with a .630 SLG and 1.035 OPS. Meanwhile, Aranda is hitting .323 with a .518 SLG and .915 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Montero leans on two primary pitches—his fastball and slider—which make up 53% of his arsenal and both grade out below league average. His slider, in particular, ranks as the worst on the entire Tigers staff (minimum 10 pitches), per Baseball Savant. Against those two pitches, Aranda is batting over .317 with an OPS above .887 and a 159 wRC+.
In 15 elite ratings this season, Aranda has recorded at least one hit 66% of the time, two hits 40% of the time, and has gone over this bases prop 46% of the time. He has hit the over in six of his 10 elite-rated road matchups.
For the price and how well Aranda has been seeing the ball, this feels like a prime spot to back a bat due for an explosive outing.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) odds via BetOnline
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