Pirates vs. Orioles: Last night left me hungry for more. The Pirates pulled Paul Skenes after only 64 pitches, even though he was on pace for something special. He still cashed our strikeout prop, but it felt like the rug was pulled out from under us. That kind of tease makes you want to dive right back in, and today we have the perfect spot.
Johan Oviedo takes the mound against one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles. With the matchup numbers pointing heavily in his favor, this is a chance to capitalize on another strong strikeout performance.
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Pirates vs. Orioles Best Bets – September 11
Can Johan Oviedo deliver an afternoon gem?
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After the Pirates pulled Paul Skenes after just 64 pitches last night, he still cashed our strikeout prop, but I felt cheated. Skenes was on pace for a career outing, and then they yanked him. Understandable, sure, but then why throw him out there in the first place? Shut him down for the season.
I woke up this morning craving more action, so I went right back to today’s matchup with one of the most swing-happy lineups in baseball.
This afternoon we are on Johan Oviedo over 5.5 strikeouts at +127. There are 4.5 strikeout props out there for those who want to pay $1.50, but I want a little extra sweat to carry me through the afternoon.
The 27-year-old right-hander owns the top pitcher rating on Batters-Box’s current season board today. He also holds the highest average hitter matchup rating at a sharp 35%. Typically, when pitchers draw a strikeout matchup percentage above 32%, they clear 5.5 strikeouts about 60% of the time.
This is only Oviedo’s sixth start of the season, yet he has already battled some tough opponents since debuting in August. He has struck out at least five in three of his first five outings. None of those teams have strikeout issues anywhere close to the Baltimore Orioles.
Orioles Strikeout Struggles
Baltimore has been one of the most aggressive, swing-happy teams in baseball recently, and it has not worked in their favor. This afternoon they bring eight hitters above the league-average strikeout rate according to Batters-Box. At home in the past month, Baltimore ranks fourth in strikeout percentage. Over the last three weeks, they rank third. Over the last two weeks, they rank second.
Over their last 60 plate appearances, six Orioles have strikeout percentages above 22.5%. The league average sits around 23%. In their last 10 games, seven Orioles are above 23.7%. Notable names include Colton Cowser (45.2% L10 games), Ryan Mountcastle (32.6%), and Coby Mayo (31.6%). Against right-handed pitching in their last 60 at-bats, those three carry strikeout rates as high as 40% and no lower than 36.7%.
With most of Baltimore’s lineup hitting from the left side, it is worth noting Oviedo’s numbers against lefties. Against 38 left-handed hitters this season, he owns a 31.6% strikeout percentage. The Orioles have four left-handed bats above the 22.5% strikeout mark.
Possible Ladder?
And yes, I laddered Oviedo all the way up to 9+ strikeouts. The prices are too good to pass up. His season-high is six, which he has done twice against strong offenses in the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Now he gets a chance to feast on one of the most aggressive teams in the league. If the Pirates can give him some run support, he may stay out there long enough for the ladder to cash.
Oviedo has all the tools, the matchup, and the underlying numbers to deliver this afternoon. The Orioles have been striking out at one of the highest rates in baseball, and Oviedo’s profile lines up perfectly to take advantage. The 5.5 line offers value with plus money, while the ladder gives us a chance to swing for more against a free-swinging Baltimore lineup. If Pittsburgh’s offense does its part, Oviedo should get the opportunity to work deep enough to push past his season-high. This is a spot worth backing, and I am all in on his strikeout upside today.
Best Bet: Johan Oviedo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+127) odds via BetOnline
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