Pirates vs. Giants: Logan Webb has the perfect bounce-back spot this afternoon. The strikeout trends are strong, and the matchup could not be better. Time to break out the ladder.
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Last Month: 43-103 (-16u)
Last Week: 11-29 (-5.9u)
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Pirates vs. Giants Best Bets – July 30
Is today the day Logan Webb gets back on track?
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Head on over to the garage and take out that ladder, because we are laddering Giants ace Logan Webb’s strikeouts.
Webb holds the top pitcher rating on both Batters-Box’s default and current season rankings. He owns the second highest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage this season, trailing Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi by just three decimal points.
When Webb enters with an elite pitcher rating, the trends are strong—he records 5+ strikeouts 69% of the time, clears his strikeout prop 61% of the time, and hits 7+ in 30% of those starts. That is based on a 36-game elite rating sample size. At home, he is even better—5+ strikeouts in 82% of those games, 6+ in 76%, and 7+ in 35%. He has also gone over this prop in eight of his last ten elite-rated starts.
Swing Happy Pirates
Today, Webb faces a swing-happy Pirates team that has struggled with strikeouts on the road all season long. They rank fourth worst in strikeout rate away from home. According to Batters-Box, eight projected Pirates hitters are above the league-average strikeout rate, and three have poor matchup ratings. Over the last four weeks on the road, they have a strikeout rate near 30%, per Handigraphs. Even over the last two weeks overall, the number still sits at 22.3%.
Yes, Webb has had two underwhelming starts since the All-Star break, logging just five strikeouts in ten innings. Still, he has gone over this number in 15 of his 22 starts this season and is averaging 6.3 strikeouts per game at home. He now gets a chance to settle back in against one of the most aggressive offenses in baseball. I think this is a perfect spot to ladder up. I personally took it all the way to 11 for some extra afternoon fun.
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