Pirates vs. Diamondbacks: Odds & Predictions | May 28, 2025

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks: Oneil Cruz headlines the board today as the lone elite-rated hitter in this NL matchup, and the spot could not be better. He faces Zac Gallen, who has been getting hit hard at home. After a quiet night at the plate, this is a prime bounce-back opportunity for the Pirates slugger.

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Last Week: 19-33 (-0.65u)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds

What are the odds we will witness a harder hit ball this afternoon from Mr. Oneil Cruz?

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Run Line

Pirates: +1.5 (-188)

Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+165)

Total

Over: 7.5 (-104)

Under: 7.5 (-116)

Moneyline

Pirates: +121

Diamondbacks: -133

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Best Bet

The Cruz Missile, who just hit the hardest ball ever tracked by Statcast on Sunday, finds himself atop today’s matchup ratings on Batters-Box. His elite trends are not the flashiest stats of all time, but they are worth noting. In 25 elite-rated road games, he records two hits 36% of the time and clears this prop in just 44% of them.

However, after going 0-for-5 last night, Cruz draws a favorable matchup against Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen. The right-hander is allowing nearly 42% hard contact to opposing hitters. Through seven home starts this season, Gallen holds a 6.03 ERA, a .272 opponent batting average, and is giving up 5.71 hits per game. On top of that, over 11 starts, he is surrendering 2.09 extra-base hits per outing.

Gallen throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and FanGraphs grades it as a below-average pitch. In fact, 78% of Gallen’s arsenal ranks below league average. That works in our favor—Cruz has been mashing the heater this season. According to Baseball Savant, Cruz owns a .333 xBA, .811 xSLG, .534 xwOBA, and a 74% hard-hit rate against fastballs. He has been assigned a run value of three against the pitch.

With all that said, this is a great spot to back the Pirates big man. We are getting solid value at +125—sprinkle on the home run for some extra fun. Happy Wednesday!

Best Bet: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) odds via BetOnline

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