Pirates vs. Twins: Joe Ryan is set up for a big strikeout night at home against a struggling Pittsburgh lineup. The numbers are sharp, the matchup is ideal, and the trends are hard to ignore. This might be one of the cleanest strikeout spots on the board tonight.
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Last Month: 57-140 (-24.7u)
Last Week: 9-27 (-6.37u)
Thursday was abysmal. FULL FADE!
Pirates vs. Twins Best Bets – July 11
Will the Pirates fall flat again against another legit arm?
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We head to Minneapolis, where a struggling Pittsburgh offense faces yet another lethal arm. Twins starter Joe Ryan takes the mound against the Pirates in what should be a Ryan masterclass waiting to happen.
This is a strong spot for Ryan, and the data supports it across the board. He has consistently cleared this strikeout number at home, where his strikeout rates are much stronger compared to on the road. He comes into this game with 16 elite strikeout ratings on the season. In those 16 starts, he has recorded:
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6+ strikeouts in 75%
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7+ strikeouts in 56%
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8+ strikeouts in 37%
He has gone over the 6.5 strikeout mark in seven of his last 10 elite-strikeout matchups, which is exactly where he stands tonight. The upside is clear, and the matchup is very favorable.
Pirates Offensive Struggles
The Pirates are an ideal target for a pitcher like Ryan. They have zero hitters with an elite rating and no one above the league-average ground ball rate, which is perfect when backing a strikeout prop. There is no need to worry about ground-ball pitchers having a big ground-ball night versus a heavy strikeout approach. Even more importantly, eight Pirates hitters are striking out at a rate above league average.
Their offense is a complete mess. The Pirates rank dead last in strikeout rate over the past seven days and fifth-worst over the last 30 days. They have also been one of the worst offensive teams on the road all season, and now they face a pitcher who thrives in front of his home crowd.
This is a perfect combination of matchup, form, and price. Joe Ryan is in a prime spot to go deep and rack up strikeouts. At -130, this number offers real value considering how poor the Pittsburgh offense has been. Everything aligns for a strong outing.
Best Bet: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130) odds via BetOnline
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