Phillies vs. Dodgers: Nola Faces Tough Challenge

Shohei Ohtani ready to slug best prop bets

Phillies vs. Dodgers: The stage is set at Dodger Stadium for what could be the final chapter of the Phillies’ season. After dropping the first two games at home, Philadelphia now finds itself with its back against the wall, heading into one of the toughest road environments in baseball. The pressure shifts squarely onto Aaron Nola, who has battled inconsistency all season and owns an ERA north of 6.50 away from home.

On the other side, Los Angeles has every reason to be confident. Their offense has been among the most explosive in October, led by Shohei Ohtani and a lineup that thrives in clutch moments. With momentum, home-field energy, and elite production on their side, the Dodgers are in position to deliver the knockout punch. Everything about this matchup suggests Los Angeles will seize control early and finish the job in front of their home crowd to punch their ticket to the NLCS.

Let’s get into the play in this matchup!

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.

4.8/5 Review Rating

Bonus & Benefits
55% Welcome Bonus w/ code BNBOL55
See our review »

Up to $250 in Free Bets + 100 Spins
$10 Cash Bonus w/ Code BNEWS
Fastest Payouts

Play Now & Claim Bonus »

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.

Last Month: 36-75 (-4.83u)

Last Week: 11-12 (+3.35u)

Phillies vs. Dodgers Game 3 Best Bets – October 8

Will the Dodgers sweep the Phillies in three?

Check out BetOnline’s New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!

Of all the teams playing today, a Phillies win would be the most shocking to me. After dropping the first two games at home, now heading on the road where they have struggled all season, morale has to be at an all-time low. Their season now rests on Aaron Nola at Dodger Stadium, a starter who owns a road ERA north of 6.50 and has consistently struggled to stop teams from scoring.

I am on the Dodgers first five team total tonight. I grabbed the over 2.5 at +125 and love the plus money. Asking for three runs is not much when most team totals hover around 2.5. The Dodgers should be motivated to close this series out on their home field.

Today, the Dodgers hold the highest-rated offense on Batters-Box, featuring four elite-rated hitters, most notably Shohei Ohtani. Against Nola, Ohtani owns a rating above 0.60 in the default model and above 0.70 in current-season ratings. When his numbers reach that range, he tends to dominate. As a team, Los Angeles has ranked as a top-six offense over the last four weeks at home and owns the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage during that span.

Nola vs. Dodgers

Nola enters with poor Batters-Box ratings, weak matchup metrics in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact, and every pitch in his arsenal grading below league average, per FanGraphs. On the road this season, he carries a 6.92 ERA, a 4.62 expected ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP. In those eight games away from home, Nola is allowing 5.8 hits and four runs, per game. The last five road opponents he faced, Arizona, Milwaukee, Washington, Cleveland, and New York, all scored at least four runs. Over that stretch, he has allowed a 7.66 ERA, 4.61 xERA, 1.50 WHIP, 40% hard contact rate, and 11% barrel rate, with opposing hitters producing a .272 xBA, .467 xSLG, and .347 xwOBA.

The Dodgers have every edge heading into tonight. Momentum, confidence, and home-field advantage all lean heavily their way. The Phillies look completely defeated, and asking Aaron Nola to save their season on the road feels like a tall, nearly impossible task. Los Angeles has been locked in offensively, and their disciplined approach should match up perfectly against Nola’s obvious struggles. This just feels like the spot where the Dodgers come out fast, put multiple runs on the board early, and never let up. Everything points to them wrapping up this series tonight in dominant fashion and confidently moving on to the NLCS.

Runs! Runs! Runs!

Best Bet: Dodgers First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+125) odds via BetOnline

Interested in More Content?

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Get FREE Picks

Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!

In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!