Phillies vs. Diamondbacks: A Key Matchup to Watch

Can the Diamondbacks beat the Mariners at Chase Field tonight?

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks:

The desert heat sets the stage for a marquee showdown as the Phillies roll into Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks in a three-game set. While many eyes will focus on the sides and totals, our attention is locked in on one player who continues to define Philadelphia’s lineup – Kyle Schwarber. Fresh off a career-best power season, Schwarber has a prime opportunity against Arizona starter Ryne Nelson, whose pitch mix plays right into his strengths. When a hitter of Schwarber’s caliber sees this kind of matchup, it is worth digging deeper. The numbers, trends, and history all point to one clear angle tonight, and it may come down to a single swing changing the game.

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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Best Bets – September 19

Will we see another Schwarbomb this week?

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Heading down to the desert, where the Diamondbacks are hosting the Phillies in a three-game set. In this spot, we do not care about a side or total. The entire focus is on potential NL MVP runner-up Kyle Schwarber, who has a dream matchup against Arizona’s Ryne Nelson.

The Phillies slugger is having a career year, blasting 53 home runs while carrying a .243 batting average and .937 OPS. Schwarber is similar to Cal Raleigh, a one-trick pony. He does not often stack multiple hits or doubles. He is mainly a home run, single, or walk hitter. However, he provides strong trends that make his bases prop appealing. In 50 elite ratings this season on Batters-Box, Schwarber records a hit 64% of the time, clears 1.5 bases 54%, and homers 32%. On the road, in 28 elite ratings, he goes over his bases prop 50% of the time and leaves the yard 28.57%.

Schwarber vs. Nelson

The beauty of Schwarber’s matchup against Ryne Nelson is that Nelson leans on his fastball 62% of the time. Schwarber is one of the best fastball hitters on the team. This season, he owns a .286 average, 1.162 OPS, and 220 wRC+ against the pitch. Nelson also mixes in a cutter 12% of the time, and Schwarber is nearly batting .400 with a 1.211 OPS against cutters this year. That accounts for 74% of Nelson’s arsenal. The rest of his pitch mix grades below league average, so there is no concern about Schwarber struggling with the remainder.

The best way to attack this spot is with Schwarber’s home run prop at above three-to-one. Why? He has only one game this month with two or more hits and only one game with a double. It is rare for him to stack multiple hits, and he is always due for a walk. In fact, he has more walks than hits this month. Combine that with a generous home run price that often dips as low as +180, and this is the clear play. Anything above +230 for Schwarber to leave the yard is a must bet, especially with the way he has been punishing baseballs this season.

Kyle Schwarber is set up perfectly tonight against Ryne Nelson. With 53 home runs on the year, Schwarber has been crushing fastballs and cutters, the two pitches Nelson throws nearly three-quarters of the time. His Batters-Box ratings back the play, showing strong trends for both hits and home runs, especially in elite matchups. Schwarber is not the type to stack doubles or multi-hit games, but that is not his role. He is a power-first bat, and when his home run price climbs above +230, it becomes a must bet. One big swing could define this series opener in Arizona.

Bonus: Schwarber Home Run (+301)

Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109) odds via BetOnline

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