Phillies vs. Brewers First Five Betting Insights

Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Andrew Vaughn - World Series Odds Stock Watch: Which Teams Are on the Rise? (August 11, 2025)

Phillies vs. Brewers: The Phillies and Brewers square off tonight in what shapes up to be one of the more intriguing matchups on the slate. Philadelphia is coming off a rare offensive outburst on the road, while Milwaukee continues to quietly roll at home with one of the most productive lineups in baseball. The pitching matchup is just as compelling, with Aaron Nola trying to steady himself against a Brewers lineup stacked with left handed bats.

Add in a bonus prop spotlighting Kyle Schwarber’s power potential, and this game offers multiple ways to attack the board and find strong value.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.

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Phillies vs. Brewers Best Bets – September 3

Kyle Schwarber celebrates a double - MLB pitcher vs. batter props

Can Kyle Schwarber catch up to Cal Raleigh in the home run race?

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I am extremely excited for this game tonight, because the Phillies were able to score 10+ runs on the road last night and I have been dogging them about their road struggles for a couple weeks now. They have been dealing with a ton of road offensive issues, but have a super lineup at home.

However, I want to back the Brewers tonight against Aaron Nola, by being on their first five team total over 2.5, priced at +125. The Brew Crew enter today’s slate with three elite rated hitters, per Batters-Box. Milwaukee has been fantastic at home over the last four weeks. Ranking in the top five in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS and top ten in walk rate.

Nola vs. Brewers

On the other side, Nola has been struggling on the road this season, allowing 5.6 hits and 3.6 runs through six road starts. Overall, in his last seven starts, the veteran right hander owns a 6.50 ERA, 4.77 xER and is giving up 45% hard contact. Opposing hitters during that span have a .284 xBA, .477 xSLG and .353 xwOBA.

The Brewers top four hitters are lefties this evening. Left handed bats have given Nola a ton of trouble over the last few weeks. The last 90 lefties he has faced own a .409 xBA, .691 xSLG and .400 xwOBA. Meanwhile, he owns a 8.05 ERA and 6.33 xERA.

This spot just screams home team get right opportunity. Milwaukee has been one of the best hitting clubs in their own ballpark over the last month, and the matchup lines up perfectly with Nola’s recent struggles. The Brewers have the left handed depth to exploit his splits, and their patience at the plate should force him into tough counts early. After dropping one to a Phillies team that had not scored double digits on the road in two months, I expect the Brewers to come out swinging with urgency. This feels like the kind of night where Milwaukee can put pressure on Nola from the start and seize control of the game before the bullpens even get involved.

Bonus play

Yes, we are riding with Kyle Schwarber to leave the yard for the first time since his iconic four home run game. If you want safer options, take his hit at around $1.65 or his hits, runs, RBI at $1.25, but do not waste your time on his bases. If you want cushion on a possible double. Take his double prop and home run. It is Kyle Schwarber. He mostly hits singles and home runs. Hence why his double is priced at 5-to-1 on some books.

However, he is a full go tonight against Jose Quintana, who he crushes every single pitch in his arsenal. On top of that, the Phillies slugger has an elite rating on Batters-Box, where when he has an elite rating he records a home run 27% of the time. That is a 188 elite game sample size. Oh, need a more recent sample? In 42 elite ratings this season, he crushes one 31% of the time.

Need a little extra sweat come sweat the nuke missile with me. Be ready for my scream on my X @ColbyMBets. I will be howling at the moon after this one.

Schwarber is always a boom-or-bust type of bat, but the numbers and matchup make this a spot worth chasing. With his track record against Quintana’s arsenal and the elite rating backing it up, the value on his home run prop is too good to pass on. Whether you take the safer routes or ride along for the long ball, this play has all the ingredients for a memorable finish under the lights.

Best Bet: Brewers First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+110) odds via BetOnline

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