Two National League teams meet tonight in their second and final series of the season. The Philadelphia Phillies are out in California taking on the San Diego Padres in a three-game weekend series.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: MLB Picks & Predictions
Tatis and San Diego host Philadelphia tonight
Earlier this month, the teams played three games in Philly. The hosts took the first game, with the second getting postponed due to weather. They played a double-header the next day, splitting games, but the Phillies lead the season series 2-1. Now San Diego gets to play host before the All-Star Break.
The Phillies lead the NL East by just 1.5 games over the New York Mets. They dropped two of three against the Giants in San Francisco, and now they face the Padres who are 29-17 at home.
San Diego is 5.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and just half a game out of second place behind the Giants. They have alternated wins and losses for 10 games now, and are coming off a win against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Can they find a way to win two straight for the first time since June 25?
Matchup Information – Phillies vs. Padres – July 11
- Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, CA)
- Date: Friday, July 11, 2025
- First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Pitching Matchup
- Philadelphia Phillies: Ranger Suarez (7-2, 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
- San Diego Padres: Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Phillies vs. Padres Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Phillies -1.5 (+102)
- Padres +1.5 (-122)
Moneyline
- Phillies -157
- Padres +142
Total
- Over 8 (-108)
- Under 8 (-112)
Ryan Bergert hasn’t pitched since June 24 for the Padres, but is set to start tonight. He became part of the rotation for the month of June, and San Diego has won four of the five games he started, but battling the Phillies’ bats could be tough.
Their team batting average drops 16 points on the road, but they’ve been hot during the month of July. They are only 4-4 this month, but the team is hitting .286 in those contests, nearly 30 points above their season average. The Padres don’t hit lefties as well as they’d like, but their team average has been going down each month since April.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Best Bets
Suarez is on the mound for Philadelphia tonight
Phillies vs. Padres MLB Prediction: Phillies Win, Over 8
Best Bet: Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145) Bovada
Don’t be afraid of this juice tonight, Suarez has been a stud, especially on the road.
He already has a sub 2.00 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. On the road in six starts, his ERA is 1.06, with a 0.85 WHIP. Suarez has stayed under this number in six straight starts, five of six starts on the road, and 67% of starts this year. This includes multiple outings where he goes at least seven innings, staying under this total.
Suarez has great history against some of the biggest Padres batters, including Manny Machado (.154 AVG in 13 ABs) and Fernando Tatis (.200 AVG in 10 ABs). Last start, he was pulled after five innings and just 80 pitches, while still staying under this line.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he pitches five solid innings and lets the bullpen handle the rest of the work.
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