Padres vs. Mariners: Another night in Seattle brought fireworks yet again, with the Padres and Mariners trading blows in a high-scoring affair. Runs have not been hard to come by in this series, as both teams have pushed at least six across the plate in back-to-back games.
The intensity only ramps up this afternoon with the series on the line. Veteran Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego, while young right-hander Bryan Woo looks to answer for Seattle. The contrast in arms sets the stage for plenty of intrigue, and with Darvish’s recent struggles, the matchup opens the door for value on one specific Mariner. That is where our focus lands today.
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Last Month: 76-96 (+15.46u)
Last Week: 12-23 (-3.66u)
Padres vs. Mariners Best Bets – August 27
Can Josh Naylor keep his 5-game hitting streak alive?
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After yet another exciting game up in Seattle, the Padres were able to hold down the Mariners and take a 7-6 win in game two of this three game series. Back to back games, both teams have scored at least six runs. This afternoon, both teams will be eyeing the series win as Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres and Bryan Woo will get the start for the Mariners.
Darvish’s Numbers
Darvish has been struggling a bit this season, as you would expect for a 39-year-old pitcher. He is in the last chapter of his career. He owns a 5.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the year. Playing on the road has been his biggest struggle, posting a 7.66 ERA, allowing 4.6 hits and 3.8 runs per road start this season. Opponents own a .264 average against him.
Left handed hitters have also given him the most trouble, against them on the road, they have a sub-.300 average, .365 OBP, .617 SLG and .413 wOBA. The last 30 left handed hitters he has faced Darvish is giving up 42% hard contact, 21% barrel rate and 4.05 HR/9. Those hitters have a .354 xBA, .892 xSLG and .423 xwOBA.
If you can tell where I am going with this, yes, we are taking a left handed hitter this afternoon. That leftie loo will be, Josh Naylor, one of the newest faces on Seattle’s roster. We are all over his 1.5 hits, runs, RBI at even money.
Naylor’s Trends
The first baseman owns an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he has the fifth highest rating in this matchup. He has some strong trends when elite. In 72 elite ratings, dating back the last three seasons, Naylor records at least a hit 72% of the time, two hits 32% and over this prop 57% of the time. However, in 36 elite ratings at home, he records a hit 75% of the time, two hits 33% and over this prop 64% of the time.
Over the last month, Naylor has a .264 average, .309 OBP, .484 SLG and .793 OPS. He has thrived at home this season, batting .330, with a .522 SLG and .907 OPS.
Naylor is currently riding a five-game hitting streak, I typically shy away from guys on hitting streaks. However, all of his hits during that streak are all mostly singles, so it think he is still due for an explosive outing at the dish. Yes, I also sprinkled on his home run at +575.
In his last 30 plate appearances at home, the big fella has a .407 average, .517 wOBA, .467 OBP and 1.208 OPS. He has been seeing the ball better than anyone as of late.
Darvish has six pitches in his arsenal and Naylor is destroying nealrly 60% of his pitch mix this season. Against sinkers, curveballs, fastballs and cutters, he is batting at least .305, has an OPS of at least .831 and wRC+ of 143 against all of those pitches.
Trust the Data
This matchup sets up almost perfectly. Darvish is an aging veteran whose road numbers continue to spiral, while his struggles against left-handed bats leave him vulnerable to extra-base damage. Naylor, meanwhile, has been locked in at the plate, especially at home where his numbers jump off the page. The trends support it, the matchup screams it, and the value on the market gives us the green light to fire.
There is always some risk targeting a player on a hitting streak, but in this case, the profile fits too well to ignore. Naylor’s ability to square up nearly every pitch type in Darvish’s arsenal is rare, and his production against elite ratings further cements the play. When you add in his hot stretch at home and Darvish’s road woes, it paints the picture of a hitter primed to make noise.
Naylor checks every box, and at plus money, his prop carries both value and upside. This is the type of spot you circle and lean into, trusting the data and the bat to do the rest.
Best Bet: Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+100) odds via BetOnline
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