Padres vs. Cubs: Game three of the Wild Card series between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs takes place this afternoon at Wrigley Field, with everything on the line. Two veteran right handers square off, as Yu Darvish faces his former club and Jameson Taillon gets the ball for Chicago. Both managers know there is no tomorrow, and neither starter is likely to have a long leash. The Cubs enter with momentum, elite splits at home, and a lineup that has been crushing right handed pitching. Add in a fired-up Wrigley crowd, and this win-or-go-home matchup has all the makings of October drama.
Let’s get into the play!
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Padres vs. Cubs Game 3 Best Bets – October 2
Can Yu Darvish shut down his former team?
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Game three of this Wild Card series between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs is built around two seasoned veterans. Former Cub and 39-year-old right hander Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego, while 33-year-old right hander Jameson Taillon goes for Chicago. Both arms will be on extremely short leashes given the magnitude of the game and their inconsistent track records. In a spot like this, backing the offenses makes sense, but I lean Cubs against a fading 40-year-old starter. That is why I am locked in on Chicago’s first five team total over 1.5 at -135.
The Cubs lineup is red hot. They enter with four elite rated hitters and another graded as great by Batters-Box. Over the last four weeks at home, Chicago ranks first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO, while sitting third in walk rate. Against right handers in that span, they are top five across most categories. Add in a rabid Wrigley crowd, and the Cubbies should be fueled to push into the next round.
Darvish vs. Cubs
Darvish has struggled all year and enters today with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. His matchup metrics are all below average: wOBA, ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball rate. We want balls elevated, and he does not keep them on the ground. On the road, he has been a liability, posting a 7.26 ERA and .273 opponent average across seven starts. Chicago’s top six rated hitters will bat from the left side, and lefties have punished him. Against his last 60 faced, he owns a 5.84 ERA, 4.78 xERA, and 4.90 xFIP, with opponents producing a .281 xBA, .641 xSLG, and .353 xwOBA. This sets up perfectly for Chicago’s left handed bats.
If you are unable to bet first five team totals, I think the overall first five over is another strong angle. Neither starter has shown much consistency this season, and both managers will not hesitate to go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. That usually means traffic on the bases, scoring opportunities, and a game that can open up quickly in the early innings.
Other Options
The Cubs have the offensive profile, the splits, and the recent form to take advantage of Darvish’s struggles, while Taillon is no lock to dominate either. With elimination looming, the pressure is sky-high, and that tends to tilt toward runs being scored rather than pitchers locking down. For me, the Cubs first five team total remains the best play, but the first five over gives you another way to attack this matchup.
Best Bet: Cubs First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-135) odds via BetOnline
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