Game 1: Playoff baseball is back at Wrigley Field, and the stage is set for the Cubs to keep their momentum alive against the Padres. Chicago enters as the home favorite with Matthew Boyd taking the ball, while San Diego turns to Nick Pivetta to open this three game showdown.
The energy on the North Side is electric, and this series marks another chance for the Cubs to showcase their red hot offense. With the postseason tightening numbers across the board, spotting value becomes even more critical. That is where this matchup offers a clear edge worth jumping on early.
Let’s dive in!
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Padres vs. Cubs Game 1 Best Bets – September 30
Can the Cubs keep their momentum rolling into October?
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Playoff baseball is back on the North Side of Chicago, and the Cubs look to keep their momentum rolling. This afternoon they host the Padres, opening as home favorites with Matthew Boyd on the mound. San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta to kick off game one of this three game set.
It took me some time to land on a play I liked in this matchup, but I circled back to my bread and butter: first five team totals. The Cubs first five total is set at 1.5, priced at -130. I understand postseason totals trend lower, but this still feels like tremendous value for an offense that has finally found its stride.
Over the last four weeks at Wrigley, Chicago ranks top three in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, ISO, and walk rate. Over the past two weeks, they remain inside the top five in those same categories. The Cubs have been one of baseball’s best first five scoring teams all season, particularly at home. Even with their midseason slump, they averaged 3.11 runs in the first five at Wrigley in 2025. By comparison, Padres opponents have averaged 2.81 runs in the first five on the road.
Pivetta vs. Cubs
The 32-year-old right hander has been solid overall, but his road numbers tell a different story. On the road this season he owns a 3.55 ERA, with opponents hitting .224 while averaging 4.7 hits and 2.4 runs per game. His last five road starts have been shakier: 4.36 xERA, 3.91 xFIP, and 46% hard contact allowed. During that stretch hitters posted a .261 xBA, .495 xSLG, and .339 xwOBA. Right handed bats in particular have crushed him lately, with a 7.06 xERA allowed, nearly 60% hard contact, and absurd numbers across the board (.469 xBA, .970 xSLG, .418 xwOBA). Why highlight righties? The Cubs’ top bats swing from that side, and those splits are simply too wild to ignore.
As I always say, 1.5 runs for an offense you trust is a gift. Here is the quote I stand by: “If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average more than two runs in the first five innings, and you are betting on an offense you already trust against a pitcher who likely does not deserve that level of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me
The Cubs’ offense has rediscovered its spark, and the matchup lines up perfectly against Pivetta’s road struggles. A first five team total of 1.5 feels like a bargain in this spot. In the postseason, finding value is everything, and this play checks every single box for me.
Best Bet: Cubs First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-130) BetOnline
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