Padres vs. Nationals: Gavin Sheets has burned me twice this season, but I am heading back to the well in a perfect matchup spot. The numbers support a strong bounce-back opportunity, especially with his elite rating and favorable splits against right-handed pitching. I am locking in on a total bases angle and breaking down why this is the time to trust him.
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Last Month: 45-112 (-20.6u)
Last Week: 5-10 (-0.6u)
Padres vs. Nationals Best Bets – July 18
Can Gavin Sheets continue to shine on the road?
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I am an absolute sucker for Gavin Sheets and I am desperate to cash a play on him this season. I am already 0-2 with him, failing to cash both his home run and HRR props a couple of weeks back, but this spot feels perfect.
The Padres outfielder finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season ratings. He has performed very well this year when holding that elite tag, posting the following in 19 games with that designation:
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Hit: 73%
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2+ Hits: 31%
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2+ Bases: 43%
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Home Run: 31%
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Single: 57%
Making the Most of This Data
I included the single trend for anyone worried about him not clearing his bases line and who may want a safer look. He has recorded eight singles, including twice hitting two singles in his last ten elite rating games. My suggestion is to pair him with another player to record a hit for plus money. I will have plenty more write-ups coming throughout the day, so if you want more leans on hitters, click this link. That said, I still love the total bases angle.
Sheets vs. Soroka
On the road this season against right-handed pitchers, the Padres lefty owns a .274 average, .857 OPS, and 137 wRC+. Sheets gets to face Michael Soroka, who has struggled against left-handed bats all season. The 27-year-old has allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings to lefties. He also owns a 5.67 ERA and a .250 opponent batting average at home. According to FanGraphs, 56% of his pitch mix is graded below league average—45% of that being his fastball. Sheets against fastballs this year has crushed, producing a 1.2 run value per 100, a .300 batting average, .929 OPS, and 168 wRC+.
I love the price. I love the matchup. This feels like the perfect spot to back Sheets on the road against a struggling arm.
Best Bet: Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) odds via BetOnline
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