Padres vs. Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani headlines Monday’s slate with elite hitting metrics and a sky-high Batters-Box rating. His matchup against Dylan Cease screams value. But with his long-awaited return to the mound expected to be brief, there is a sharp edge on his strikeout under.
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Last Month: 78-153 (-4.77u)
Last Week: 18-40 (-2.32u)
Padres vs. Dodgers Best Bet – June 16
Shohei Ohtani prepared to feast on Dylan Cease.
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Would you look at that — Shohei Ohtani enters Monday with a 0.626 rating on Batters-Box, one of the highest on the board. In 39 elite-rated games where he holds a rating above 0.60, Ohtani has recorded a hit 94.87% of the time, two hits 46.15% of the time, cashed this prop 76.92% of the time, and gone over three total bases 56.41% of the time. When he rates this high, he is an auto play.
He will face Padres starter Dylan Cease, who holds a poor overall rating this season. On top of that, Cease has one of the worst matchup ratings today across wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball percentage. The right hander is allowing 45.66% hard contact to opposing hitters.
On the road this season, Cease owns a 5.65 ERA with a .246 opponent batting average. Left-handed hitters are posting a .237 average, .323 OBP, .410 slugging percentage, and a .733 OPS against him. He is also allowing 2.33 extra-base hits per start.
According to FanGraphs, 45% of his arsenal grades below league average, and the other half — his slider — is only slightly above average.
Ohtani matches up well against Cease’s pitch mix, has been seeing the ball extremely well over the last seven days, and the price we are getting for a guy with these elite trends is too good to pass up. This is a must-bet.
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
Shohei Ohtani 2025 Pitching Debut
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-135) odds via BetOnline
How well will Shohei Ohtani perform on the bump this evening?
Yes, I am willing to sweat out this three at-bat thrill ride. Why? Shohei Ohtani has not thrown in a real game since August 23, 2023. Regardless of his talent and capabilities, blindly taking the over just because of his name is silly-goose behavior. I love targeting strikeout unders on openers. This is an electrifying, get in, get out kind of play.
The Padres are batting .280 with a .345 OBP, .465 SLG, and .811 OPS in the first inning. On top of that, their offense ranks second in strikeout percentage over the last seven days (17.1%). Over the last 14 days, they are eighth at 20.7%.
With Ohtani still easing his way back, I am fading him for what will likely be a one-inning appearance tonight.
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